PURPOSE To reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, we sought to develop a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis.METHODS Multivariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to develop clinical decision rules for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis, defined using 3 different reference standards (purulent antral puncture fluid or abnormal finding on a computed tomographic (CT) scan; for acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, we used a positive bacterial culture of antral fluid). Signs, symptoms, C-reactive protein (CRP), and reference standard tests were prospectively recorded in 175 Danish patients aged 18 to 65 years seeking care for suspected acute rhinosinusitis. For each reference standard, we developed 2 clinical decision rules: a point score based on a logistic regression model and an algorithm based on a CART model. We identified low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for acute rhinosinusitis or acute bacterial rhinosinusitis for each clinical decision rule.
RESULTSThe point scores each had between 5 and 6 predictors, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) between 0.721 and 0.767. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a 16%, 49%, and 73% likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, respectively. CART models had an AUROCC ranging from 0.783 to 0.827. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis of 6%, 31%, and 59% respectively.
CONCLUSIONSWe have developed a series of clinical decision rules integrating signs, symptoms, and CRP to diagnose acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis with good accuracy. They now require prospective validation and an assessment of their effect on clinical and process outcomes. Ann Fam Med 2017;15:347-354. https://doi.org/10.1370/afm.2060.
INTRODUCTIONP ractice guidelines recommend the use of antibiotics only for patients with prolonged, severe, or worsening symptoms of acute rhinosinusitis, when the likelihood of a bacterial cause is thought to be higher.1,2 It is common practice, however, for patients with a diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis to be prescribed an antibiotic regardless of the duration of symptoms or their severity.3 One strategy to reduce inappropriate prescribing is to give physicians tools that can help them more confidently diagnose or rule out acute bacterial rhinosinusitis.Previous studies have shown that individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis.4,5 Point-ofcare tests, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) are promising, but by themselves they are not adequate to diagnose or rule out acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. 6,7 Clinical decision rules have been proposed but have not been prospectively validated. 12 Although a CT scan is highly sensitive for the d...