Use of the spatial extremogram to form a homogeneous region centered on a target site for the regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, C-M.; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

doi:10.2495/safe-v6-n4-777-781

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…An empirical spatial extremogram (ESE; Hamdi et al 2016) was used to delineate a physically homogeneous region centered on a target site. The ESE is a set of extremal dependence coefficients (𝜌𝜌 �) and is computed as the ratio of the number of simultaneous extreme events at a neighboring site to the number of extreme events at a target site, as follows:…”

Section: Regional Frequency Analysis (Rfa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of storm surge and seiche hazards for Lake Erie

Ramos-Santiago,

Nadal-Caraballo,

Garcia-Moreno

et al. 2024

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Storm surge and seiche events are generally forced by severe storms, initially resulting in a wind-driven super elevation of water level on one or more sides of a lake (surge) followed by a rebound and periodic oscillation of water levels between opposing sides of the lake (seiche). These events have caused flooding along Lake Erie and significant damages to coastal communities and infrastructure. This study builds upon statistical analysis methods initially developed for the 2012 federal interagency Great Lakes Coastal Flood Study. Using the Coastal Hazards System's stochastic Storm Simulation (StormSim) suite of tools, including the Probabilistic Simulation Technique (PST), and regional frequency model, historical extreme events were assessed in a local frequency analysis and a regional frequency analysis to quantify the annual exceedance frequency (AEF) of WLD events specific to Lake Erie. The objective of this study was to quantify AEFs of storm surge and seiche hazards to provide a better understanding of these events to aid flood mitigation and risk reduction for lakeside properties.

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Section: Regional Frequency Analysis (Rfa)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical analysis of storm surge and seiche hazards for Lake Erie

Ramos-Santiago,

Nadal-Caraballo,

Garcia-Moreno

et al. 2024

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“…En ce sens, les experts scientifiques travaillant au BEHRIG présentent en 2011 une série de contre-calculs et proposent également un article dans une revue scientifique sur cette approche (BARDET et al, 2011). Ce travail d'amélioration de l'approche sera poursuivi dans une série d'articles (HAMDI et al, 2018a ;HAMDI et al, 2016) qui mènera à un article en commun entre experts scientifiques de l' IRSN et d'EDF (ANDREEVSKY et al, 2019 ;ANDREEWSKY et al, 2017). La reconnaissance par les pairs associée à ces publications est indispensable pour l'acceptabilité de cette approche scientifique pour de futures expertises.…”

Section: En Quoi Consiste Le Travail Des Experts Scientifiques Travaiunclassified

Opportunités, limites et frontières de l’évaluation des aléas extrêmes : Plongée au cœur du travail des experts scientifiques de l’IRSN

Mangeon¹,

Duluc²,

Bardet³

et al. 2020

Rev. Paralia

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“…As it was defined in Hamdi et al (2016), the ESE compute is based on the extremal dependence between the pairwise extremal dependences (between any site and a target site). The neighborhood threshold N t and the extremal dependence coefficient are the most determinant parameters of the ESE.…”

Section: Definition and Concept Of The Empirical Spatial Extremogram (Ese)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These two parameters are defined for any site proposed to be neighboring to the target site and then be part of the region of interest. The extremal dependence coefficient as defined in Hamdi et al (2016) is the probability that an observation at a site is extreme (greater than a fixed threshold u) given that the simultaneous observation at the target site belongs to an extreme set. The theoretical basis of the ESE concept is taken up herein considering a new extremal dependence coefficient (i.e., the v coefficient).…”

Section: Definition and Concept Of The Empirical Spatial Extremogram (Ese)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model is presented including both the associated benefits, mainly focusing on the advantages of performing a local FA using regional and historical information, and the associated disadvantages, including the several technical challenges that still need to be overcome to ensure that the developed model becomes an appropriate frequency estimation and a design alternative for protecting structures and helping them withstand extreme coastal hazards. The developed RFM is based on the notion of asymptotic dependence and the empirical spatial extremogram (ESE) (Hamdi et al 2016) to define a homogenous region around a target site, the enrichment of local information at the target site (only if it was missed) with RI (from observations at the neighboring sites) and, finally, the use of any HI in the region of interest. The neighborhood between sites is measured by a degree of physical and statistical inter-site dependence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Development of a target-site-based regional frequency model using historical information

Hamdi¹,

Duluc²,

Bardet³

et al. 2018

Nat Hazards

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Nuclear power plants in France are designed to withstand natural hazards. Nevertheless, some exceptional storm surges, considered as outliers, are not properly addressed by classical statistical models. Local frequency estimations can be obtained with acceptable uncertainties if the data set containing the extreme storm surge levels is sufficiently complete and not characterized by the presence of an outlier. Otherwise, additional information such as regional and historical storm surges may be used to mitigate the lack of data and the influence of the outlier by increasing its representativeness in the sample. The objective of the present work is to develop a regional frequency model (RFM) using historical storm surges. Here we propose a RFM using historical information (HI). The empirical spatial extremogram is used herein to form a homogenous region of interest centered on a target site. A related issue regards the reconstitution, at the target site and from its neighbors, of missed storm surges with a multiple linear regression (MLR). MLR analysis can be considered conclusive if available observations at neighboring sites are informative enough and the reconstitution results meet some criteria during the cross-validation process. A total of 35 harbors located on the French (Atlantic and English Channel) and British coasts are used as a whole region with the La Rochelle site as a target site. The Peaks-Over-Threshold frequency model is used. The results are compared to those of an existing model based on the index flood method. The use of HI in the developed RFM increases the representativeness of the outlier in the sample. Fitting results at the right tail of the distribution appear more adequate and the 100-year return level is about 30 cm higher. The 100-year return level in the initial fitting has a return period of about 30 years in the updated fitting.

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Use of the spatial extremogram to form a homogeneous region centered on a target site for the regional frequency analysis of extreme storm surges

Cited by 5 publications

References 9 publications

Statistical analysis of storm surge and seiche hazards for Lake Erie

Statistical analysis of storm surge and seiche hazards for Lake Erie

Opportunités, limites et frontières de l’évaluation des aléas extrêmes : Plongée au cœur du travail des experts scientifiques de l’IRSN

Development of a target-site-based regional frequency model using historical information

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