Using FORDRY model to forecast transformation of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) stands in Nadsyansky Regional Landscape Park (Ukrainian Carpathians)

Abstract

The aim of this study was to simulate transformation of species composition, biomass and number of treesin spruce stands depending on a possible combination of cutting and planting scenarios as well as climate changes. The FORDRY computer model was used to predict the dynamics of Norway spruce (Piceaabies (L.) Karst.) stands in Nadsyansky Regional Landscape Park in the Ukrainian Carpathians. Potential changes in species composition, biomass and number of trees were forecasted for the next 50 years. Four scenarios, first – warm-dry, second – cutting dead spruce trees, third – cutting all trees andfourth – planting, were compared to the control one. The analysis revealed a rapid decrease of stand biomass in the first decade as a result of spruce decline. The model predicts an increase in beech biomass before the 50th year of simulation in all scenarios. In the planting scenario, the biomass of beech increased up to 199.9 ± 6.9 t·ha-1 in the 50th year. Correlation analysis showed weak autocorrelations of spruce and negative cross-correlations of spruce with the total stand in control and other scenarios. The output of performed simulations is supported with field and literature data. Results of this study can be applied in the long-term planning of the management and conservation activities in this region. The application of FORDRY model was found useful for analysing the potential scenarios of spruce stand transformation in Nadsyansky Regional Landscape Park.