Using Logistic Regression to Identify Leading Factors to Prepare for an Earthquake Emergency during Daytime and Nighttime: The Case of Mass Earthquake Drills

Abstract

Historical data have demonstrated that earthquakes can happen any time of the day and night. Drills may help communities to better prepare for such emergencies. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from 4 October to 20 November 2017, in Mexico City. The sample size was 2400. The addressed research questions were “what factors predict the likelihood that respondents would report that they agree on conducting mass evacuation drills: (a) any time of the day and (b) any time at night?” The logistic regression technique was employed to identify the factors leading to the outcome. In relation to (a), five variables were significantly associated with the outcome, i.e., age, frequency of drills, warning time, knowledge on what to do, and “perception vulnerability city”. Regarding (b), five variables were also significantly associated with the outcome variable, i.e., age, level of education, frequency of drills, negative emotions, and fear of house/building collapsing. More generally, several drills should be conducted any time of the day and night; further, 50% of them should be announced and 50% unannounced. Furthermore, the time of earthquake drills should be randomly selected. In this way, we may just match the spatial–temporal dimension of an earthquake emergency. It is hoped that the findings will lead to better preparedness of the residents of the capital city during an earthquake occurrence.

Influencing Factors on the Usefulness of an Earthquake Early Warning System during the 2017 Mexico City Earthquakes

“…Moreover, those subjects that participated in earthquake drills were less likely to see the system 'Not useful'. Again, the finding is consistent with those reported on mass earthquake drills where participants agree on participating in several drills per year [54].…”

“…Moreover, a risk factor of earthquake death may be that related to 'staying asleep' for the case of the elderly, an issue that should also be further investigated. That is, they may have problems in hearing the seismic alert during a seismic emergency at night; further details on this issue have been discussed in [54].…”

Emotional and behavioural responses to the 19 September 2017 earthquake: the case of the occupants of three multi-storey buildings

“…Moreover, in 2004, the mayor of Mexico City launched “September Month of Civil Protection” programme, and since then various preventive activities have been implemented, such as earthquake drills, aiming at strengthening the culture of self-protection. Since then, drills have been conducted yearly (CDMX-Proteccion Civil, 2020; Santos-Reyes, 2020).…”

Elements that associate with participants’ psychological discomfort during simplified fire drills

“…Afterwards, Santos-Reyes in 2020 found that the frequency of earthquake mass evacuation drills could have a significant effect on participants psychologically. Therefore, the organizer should scientifically adjust the frequency of drills according to the specific situation [ 36 ]. Additionally, Nickerson & Schildkraut came to a similar conclusion as Santos-Reyes when they explored the impact of lockdown drills [ 37 ].…”