“…To the best of our knowledge, there have only been three such applications. They have been used to predict the likelihood of takeovers (Subramanian, 2004;Barraclough, Robinson, Smith, and Whaley, 2013;Borochin, 2014), to measure the impact of regulatory legislation (Borochin and Golec, 2016), and to measure uncertainty about the firm around earnings announcements (Dubinsky and Johannes, 2006). We add to this literature by using options to derive market-based measures of risk and apply these measures to the challenge of explaining, as well as predicting, within-firm capital structure changes.…”