Using satellite telemetry and environmental niche modelling to inform conservation targets for a long-distance migratory raptor in its wintering grounds

Limiñana, Rubén; Arroyo, Beatriz; Terraube, Julien; McGrady, Michael; Mougeot, François

doi:10.1017/s0030605313001075

Cited by 27 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Ecological niche modelling (ENM) or species distribution modelling (SDM) methods estimate the relationship between species presence records at sites and the environmental characteristics of those sites, and are widely used in conservation biology and ecology (Elith et al 2011). Increasingly Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data provide the species presence records necessary for ENM analyses (Hebblewhite and Haydon 2010) for conservation themed studies on terrestrial (Swanepoel et al 2013;Van Gils et al 2014) and avian species (Jiguet et al 2011;Gschweng et al 2012;Liminana et al 2014). Maxent (Phillips et al 2006) is a common and favoured method for ENM analysis using tracking data because it does not require true absence data and has been shown repeatedly to outperform other presence-only modelling techniques (Elith et al 2006;Hernandez et al 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maxent (Phillips et al 2006) is a common and favoured method for ENM analysis using tracking data because it does not require true absence data and has been shown repeatedly to outperform other presence-only modelling techniques (Elith et al 2006;Hernandez et al 2006). Examples of its successful application with avian tracking data include predicting the extent of suitable wintering habitats for pallid (Circus macrourus) and Montagu's (Circus pygargus) harriers in sub-Saharan Africa (Liminana et al 2012;Liminana et al 2014), and the response of Eleonora's falcons (Falco eleonorae) to environmental change (Gschweng et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Due South: A first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Cape vulture occurrence

Phipps

Diekmann

MacTavish³

et al. 2017

Biological Conservation

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Multiple anthropogenic threats have caused vulture populations to decline globally, with serious ecological and socioeconomic implications. The Cape vulture (Gyps coprotheres) has declined throughout its range in southern Africa, recently being listed as extinct as a breeding species in Namibia. It has been suggested that climate change might have contributed to the decline of Cape vultures in northern parts of the range. To provide a first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the occurrence of Cape vultures, a presence-only ecological niche modelling method (Maxent) was used to predict the spatial occurrence patterns of wild-caught vultures fitted with GPS tracking units in northern Namibia and northern South Africa, under current and future climatic conditions. The models showed high predictive power (AUC >0.868±0.006), with precipitation seasonality and other bioclimatic variables identified as the most important variables for predicting Cape vulture presence. Of the area estimated to be suitable for Cape vultures under current conditions, 28-55% was predicted to become unsuitable under future climate conditions, with a pole-ward shift in the mean centre of the range of 151-333 km and significant range loss from the former breeding range in north-central Namibia and the core breeding range in northern South Africa. Expansions of suitable conditions into areas where the species has been historically absent in the south of the range were also predicted. The coverage of predicted suitable areas by protected areas was predicted to decrease from 5.8-7.9% to 2.8-3.8%, suggesting that private land will become increasingly important for Cape vulture conservation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Due South: A first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Cape vulture occurrence

Phipps

Diekmann

MacTavish³

et al. 2017

Biological Conservation

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“…However, as satellite telemetry datasets are often based on information from relatively few individuals, they can be difficult to generalise. Despite this drawback, satellite data have been successfully used in SDMs highlighting certain seasons or regions of migrant species' ranges (Martinez-Meyer et al 2004, Edrén et al 2010, Gschweng et al 2012, Limaiñana et al 2015 and it constitutes a promising resource for building SDMs (Hebblewhite and Haydon 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

A temporally explicit species distribution model for a long distance avian migrant, the common cuckoo

Williams

Willemoes

Thorup

2017

Journal of Avian Biology

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Modelling the distribution of migratory species has rarely been extended beyond breeding and wintering ranges despite many species showing much more complex movement patterns with multiple stopovers. We aimed to create a temporally explicit species distribution model describing the full annual distribution cycle, and use it to model the complex seasonal shifts in distribution of the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus, a declining long‐distance migrant. To do this we used full‐year satellite telemetry occurrence data, with their associated temporal information, to inform a temporally explicit species distribution model using MaxEnt. The resulting full‐year distribution model was highly predictive (AUC = 0.894) and appeared to have generality at the species‐level despite being informed by data from a single breeding population. Comparison of our methodology with seasonal distribution models describing the breeding, winter and migration ranges separately showed that our full‐year method provided more general and extensive predictions and performed better when tested with an independent dataset. When species distribution models based on a single season exclude environmental conditions experienced by birds in other parts of the annual cycle they risk underestimating niche breadth and neglecting the importance of stopover habitat. Conversely, models which simply average conditions across a season may miss the significance of finer scale within‐season movements and overestimate niche breadth. In contrast, our framework for a full‐year migrant distribution model successfully captures the finer‐scale changes expected in seasonal environments and can be used to inform conservation management at every stage of migration. The full‐year model framework appears to produce temporal distribution models generalised to the species‐level from occurrence data limited to few individuals of a single population and may have particular utility when aiming to describe the distribution of species with complex migration patterns from telemetry data.

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“…), mostly with the aim of assessing the effectiveness of protected area networks (Limiñana et al . , ) and predicting future range shifts (Hu et al . , Reside et al .…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Although ecological niche modelling is extensively applied in ecology and conservation research (Guisan & Thuiller 2005, Peterson 2006), its use in avian migration ecology studies has been limited to predicting wintering ranges (Hu et al 2010, Gschweng et al 2012, mostly with the aim of assessing the effectiveness of protected area networks (Limiñana et al 2012(Limiñana et al , 2015 and predicting future range shifts (Hu et al 2010, Reside et al 2012). Rarely has it been used for understanding the environmental preferences of species on the wing (Kreakie & Keitt 2012, Quillfeldt et al 2013.…”

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confidence: 99%

Wind conditions facilitate the seasonal water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards Pernis ptilorhynchus over the East China Sea

Nourani

Yamaguchi

Manda

et al. 2016

Ibis

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Migratory raptors rarely fly over stretches of water larger than 25 km, although different species undertake water crossings of varying lengths, depending mainly on their wing morphology. Oriental Honey‐buzzards fly c. 680 km over the East China Sea in autumn from breeding areas in Japan to wintering areas in Southeast Asia, but avoid this long water crossing in spring. We investigated the effects of weather on this exceptional migratory behaviour and its seasonality through a maximum entropy niche modelling approach. We used data collected through satellite tracking of 31 adult birds as presence points and a set of variables related to wind, precipitation and convective condition as environmental predictors. Results of modelling showed very different, almost non‐overlapping, areas suitable for migration over the East China Sea region in autumn and spring. Suitable migration routes in autumn mostly occurred over the sea, whereas suitable areas for spring migration mostly occurred over land, suggesting that circumnavigating the East China Sea is preferable in spring. At the regional scale, wind conditions facilitate water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards in autumn, but not in spring. Specifically, suitable tailwinds over the sea enable water‐crossing in autumn, whereas in spring, wind support and convective conditions are best over land. Our modelling did not suggest any importance of convective conditions for autumn migration. However, we expect that at smaller temporal scales, convective conditions would be a considerable facilitator of the water‐crossing behaviour in this species.

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Using satellite telemetry and environmental niche modelling to inform conservation targets for a long-distance migratory raptor in its wintering grounds

Cited by 27 publications

References 38 publications

Due South: A first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Cape vulture occurrence

Due South: A first assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on Cape vulture occurrence

A temporally explicit species distribution model for a long distance avian migrant, the common cuckoo

Wind conditions facilitate the seasonal water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards Pernis ptilorhynchus over the East China Sea

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