Using statistical downscaling to quantify the GCM-related uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios: A case study of Swedish precipitation

Chen, Deliang; Achberger, Christine; Räisänen, Jouni; Hellström, Cecilia

doi:10.1007/s00376-006-0006-5

Cited by 47 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…As with RCMs, SD depends on the validity of the GCM output, and any GCM uncertainties are compounded by the SD process (Wilby et al, 2002). Input data uncertainty from the historical data used in downscaling is another potential source of error (Chen et al, 2006). SD methods may not accurately reflect regional feedback mechanisms (Christensen et al, 2007).…”

Section: Extreme Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Wise

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The need to understand future trends in air quality is an issue that is frequently raised by air quality planners and managers. The potential for extreme events is of particular interest, but forecasts are difficult using traditional methods and further complicated by predictions of future climate change. This study aims to address this research need through a climate-based sensitivity study of ground-level ozone and particulate matter (PM) in the U.S. Southwest. Extreme value methods were used to examine ozone and PM in Tucson, Arizona, over the time period 1990-2001. A Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was employed to build regression-based models between gridded meteorological data and point time series of ozone and PM. Following model calibration and verification, future climate-based ozone and PM scenarios were created for 2002-2050 and 2051-2099. Daily output of projected ozone and PM were then subjected to extreme value methods in order to estimate climate-based changes in ozone and PM extremes over the next century. Results indicate that monthly mean and extreme ozone values are sensitive to predicted increases in temperature, particularly in the summer months. PM results are less certain but suggest that PM may be sensitive to changing moisture conditions.

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Section: Extreme Value Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Wise

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The uncertainty introduced by choice of driving GCM was assessed by Chen et al (2006) who used 17 GCMs from CMIP2 and a statistical downscaling method to produce regional precipitation scenarios over Sweden. The uncertainty in estimated precipitation change from different GCMs was larger than that for different regions.…”

Section: Use Of Multiple Model Outputs and Emissions Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Fowler

Blenkinsop

Tebaldi

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

1,925

1,491

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Abstract:There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.Consideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the 'downscaling for hydrological impacts' community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system.

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“…Gardner employed exponential equilibrium to assess annual runoff in catchments with a wide range of climatic conditions [13]. This method also has been applied by a wide range of researchers like Graham, Chen, Benestad, and Carter [14][15][16][17]. It's very clear that many factors like land use, agriculture and irrigation patterns which have effects on basin's hydrologic conductivity, are variable in long time.…”

Section: Probability Space and Gcm-scenario Combinationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

Maknoon¹,

Kazem²,

Hasanzadeh³

2012

JWARP

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Nowadays, there is a growing emphasis on Inter-basin water transfer projects as costly activities with ambiguous effects on environment, society and economy. Since the concept of climate change was in its embryonic phase before 1990's, the majority of these projects planned before that period have not considered the effect of long term variation of water resources. In all of these numerous operational and under-construction projects, an intelligent selection of the best water transmission protocol, can help the governments to optimize their expenditures on these projects ,and also can help water resources managers to face climate change effects wisely. In this paper as a case study, Dez to Qomrood inter-basin water transfer project is considered to evaluate the efficiency of three different protocols in long term. The effect of climate change has been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) in order to calculate the change of flow in the basin's area with different climate scenarios. After these calculation, a water allocation model has been used to evaluate which of these three water transmission protocols (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)) is the most efficient logic switch economically in a framework including both upstream and downstream stakeholders. As the final result, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol can supply more population especially with urban water for a fix expense and also is the most adapted protocol with future global change, at least in the first round of sustainability assessment.

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Using statistical downscaling to quantify the GCM-related uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios: A case study of Swedish precipitation

Cited by 47 publications

References 35 publications

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Climate‐based sensitivity of air quality to climate change scenarios for the southwestern United States

Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling

Inter-Basin Water Transfer Projects and Climate Change: The Role of Allocation Protocols in Economic Efficiency of the Project. Case Study: Dez to Qomrood Inter-Basin Water Transmission Project (Iran)

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