Using synthetic seismicity to evaluate seismic hazard in the Wellington region, New Zealand

Robinson, Russell; Dissen, R. J. Van; Litchfield, Nicola

doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05161.x

Cited by 47 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…Wallace 1987;Marco et al 1996;McCalpin & Nishenko 1996;Xu & Deng 1996;Dawson et al 2003;Friedrich et al 2003;Palumbo et al 2004;Weldon et al 2004;Mouslopoulou et al 2009a). Variable geological recurrence interval (RI) and single-event slip (SES) data are consistent with numerical earthquake simulations for fault systems (Robinson 2004;Robinson et al 2009aRobinson et al , 2009bRobinson et al , 2011Tullis et al 2012aTullis et al , 2012b. The size of this variability, what geological processes produce it and how it should be incorporated into hazard models are key unresolved questions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

“…Ward 1992Ward , 2000Ben-Zion 1996;Fitzenz & Miller 2001;Rundle et al 2006;Yakovlev et al 2006;Robinson et al 2009aRobinson et al , 2011Tullis et al 2012aTullis et al , 2012b. The utility of these synthetic earthquake models is that they can be designed to replicate the regional tectonics, slip rates and geometries of real fault systems simulating 10 2 -10 3 large-magnitude earthquakes on each fault.…”

Section: Earthquake Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Paleoearthquake data are primarily for strike-slip and normal faults which, in part, reflect the fact that these fault types form the best-preserved fault traces. Geological data are complemented by moderate-largemagnitude earthquakes (M w >4) generated by numerical earthquake simulations for active fault systems in the Wellington, Marlborough and Bay of Plenty regions of New Zealand (Figure 1, including 12 of the faults in Table 1) (Robinson 2004;Robinson et al 2009aRobinson et al , 2009bRobinson et al , 2011. Synthetic earthquakes help fill information gaps in the geological data which may arise due to measurement uncertainty and to the brevity of the geological record (<10 surface-rupturing earthquakes are recorded on each fault analysed; Table 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Nicol

Robinson

Dissen

et al. 2016

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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Recurrence interval (RI) and single-event slip (SES) for large-magnitude earthquakes that ruptured the ground surface (M w > 6-7.2) can vary by more than an order of magnitude on individual faults. Frequency histograms, probability density functions (PDFs) and coefficient of variation (C v , standard deviation/arithmetic mean) values for geological and simulated earthquakes on over 100 New Zealand active faults have been used to quantify RI and SES variability. Histograms of RI and SES for geological paleoearthquakes were constructed using a Monte Carlo method which accounts for the observations and their uncertainties. For the best of the geological PDFs (i.e. ≥7 surface-rupturing events) and earthquake simulations, RI are positively skewed with long recurrence tails (c. three times the mean) which are approximately described by log-normal and Weibull distributions. The geometric mean and coefficient of variation (C vln ) calculated for these log-normal distributions may be up to a factor of two lower and higher, respectively, than those determined assuming a normal distribution. By contrast, SES for geological and simulated earthquakes is often approximately normally distributed and appears to be less variable than RI (RI C v 0.6 ± 0.2 geological and 0.6 ± 0.3 simulations; SES C v 0.4 ± 0.2 geological). Variations in earthquake RI and to a lesser extent SES produce order-of-magnitude changes in slip rate over time intervals up to five times the arithmetic mean RI. Quantifying variability of RI, SES and slip rates is important when producing estimates of seismic hazard for surface-rupturing earthquakes, and could be estimated for active faults with poorly constrained paleoearthquake histories using the PDFs presented here. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Section: Earthquake Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Nicol

Robinson

Dissen

et al. 2016

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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“…The total CFS changes are the sum of coseismic and postseismic Coulomb stress changes. The shallow average receiver fault parameters (226° strike, 70° dip, and 160° rake) are based on the study of Robinson et al (2011). d Total CFS changes at the Hikurangi subduction interface.…”

Section: Seismic Hazard Assessment In the Wellington Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coseismic and postseismic deformation associated with the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand: fault movement investigation and seismic hazard analysis

Jiang

Huang

Yuan

et al. 2018

Earth Planets Space

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The 2016 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake demonstrated that multiple fault segments can undergo rupture during a single seismic event. Here, we employ Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and geodetic modeling methods to create detailed images of coseismic slip and postseismic afterslip associated with the Kaikoura earthquake. Our optimal geodetic coseismic model suggests that rupture not only occurred on shallow crustal faults but also to some extent at the Hikurangi subduction interface. The GPS-inverted moment release during the earthquake is equivalent to a Mw 7.9 event. The near-field postseismic deformation is mainly derived from rightlateral strike-slip motions on shallow crustal faults. The afterslip did not only significantly extend northeastward on the Needles fault but also appeared at the plate interface, slowly releasing energy over the past 6 months, equivalent to a Mw 7.3 earthquake. Coulomb stress changes induced by coseismic deformation exhibit complex patterns and diversity at different depths, undoubtedly reflecting multi-fault rupture complexity associated with the earthquake. The Coulomb stress can reach several MPa during coseismic deformation, which can explain the trigger mechanisms of afterslip in two high-slip regions and the majority of aftershocks. Based on the deformation characteristics of the Kaikoura earthquake, interseismic plate coverage, and historical earthquakes, we conclude that Wellington is under higher seismic threat after the earthquake and great attention should be paid to potential large earthquake disasters in the near future.

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“…That said, other models, such as lognormal and Weibull are still being used and favoured by some (e.g. Robinson et al 2011;Rundle et al 2006). At present, given the significant unknowns regarding earthquake behaviour, fault interactions and the like, it is not possible to state unequivocally which of the three models is most realistic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

Dissen

Rhoades

Little

et al. 2013

New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics

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New information on the timing of past ruptures, size of single-event displacements and Holocene dextral slip rate of the Wairarapa and Ō hariu faults has become available from recent geological studies. This information is used to evaluate the conditional probability of rupture over the next 100 yr using four different recurrenceÁtime models, allowing for data and parameter uncertainties. The sensitivity of estimates to data and distributional assumptions is examined. The southern Wairarapa Fault has a probability of rupture in the next 100 yr of c. 7.7, 1.3, 2.3 and 4.3% under the exponential, lognormal, Weibull and inverse Gaussian models, respectively, based on preferred data inputs. Corresponding estimates for the Ō hariu Fault are c. 4.3, 5.1, 3.9 and 5.1%. A logic tree with subjectively assigned weights is suggested to combine such differing time-dependent estimates. This gives a 100-yr conditional probability of rupture of c. 3.0% for the southern Wairarapa Fault and c. 4.9% for the Ō hariu Fault.

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Using synthetic seismicity to evaluate seismic hazard in the Wellington region, New Zealand

Cited by 47 publications

References 85 publications

Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Variability of recurrence interval and single-event slip for surface-rupturing earthquakes in New Zealand

Coseismic and postseismic deformation associated with the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand: fault movement investigation and seismic hazard analysis

Conditional probability of rupture of the Wairarapa and Ōhariu faults, New Zealand

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