This study aimed to determine how fall prevention self-efficacy and degree of deviation in self-cognition of physical performance, which have recently received attention for their potential to explain falls in combination with a wide variety of fall-related factors, as well as affect falls. Older adults using day-care services (n = 27 with six men, mean age: 81.41 ± 7.43 years) were included in this study. Fall history in the past year, the modified fall efficacy scale (MFES), and physical performance and cognition errors were examined by evaluating the functional reach test (FRT), the stepping over test, and the timed up and go test (TUG), along with a questionnaire. In the fall (n = 14) and non-fall (n = 13) groups, logistic regression analysis using Bayesian statistical methods was used to identify factors associated with falls. The odds ratios for the MFES ranged from 0.97 to 1.0, while those of cognition-error items ranged from 3.1 to 170.72. These findings suggested that deviation in self-cognition of physical performance, particularly overestimation of timed cognitive ability, was a factor with more explanatory power for fall history. Future studies should analyze differences by disease and age group, which were not clarified in this study, to identify more detailed fall risk factors.