Utilization of Climate Files Predicting Future Weather in Dynamic Building Performance Simulation – A review

Nielsen, Carsten Fomsgaard; Kolařík, Jakub

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/2069/1/012070

Cited by 8 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Climate scientists use two models to predict future climate; namely, GCM and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). These models represent the simulated physical processes within the atmosphere, land surface, oceans, and the cryosphere [53]. For building simulations, an RCM, typically nested within a GCM, focuses at higher spatial and temporal resolution.…”

Section: • Climate Change Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of Climate Change Implications on Building Energy Consumption: Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Hot Urban Desert Climates

Kutty,

Barakat,

Darsaleh

et al. 2023

Buildings

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The climate change–built environment nexus is complex and intertwined. Recognizing the rising air temperatures and solar radiations owing to climate-induced global warming, it is critical to manage the increased building energy and cooling loads in the Middle East Gulf states’ hot desert climates (Bwh). One of the top climate priorities is to promote climate resilience by reducing risks and enhancing adaptation options. This study aims to systematically review the existing literature to document building energy performances in and the associated adaptation measures of the Middle East Gulf states, regarding the implications of climate change. It is accomplished by answering the following questions: ‘How well do we understand the effects of climate change on building energy use in hot urban deserts?’ and ‘What are the most appropriate adaptation strategies to reduce energy use in hot urban deserts?’. Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis protocols (PRISMA), 17 studies on the influence of present and future weather scenarios on building performance are examined, considering variations in typology, methods, and input variables. Finally, the paper identifies the preferred methods and input variables for modelling building energy performance under predicted climatic changes. Passive design considerations are considered highly effective in mitigating and adapting to climate change implications. Thermal insulation and efficient window glazing are identified as the best-performing strategies, while the use of solar Photovoltaic (PV) is considered efficient in meeting the primary energy demands. The study’s findings can assist planners and designers in projecting future climatic influences on the energy usage of existing buildings.

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Section: • Climate Change Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Systematic Review of Climate Change Implications on Building Energy Consumption: Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Hot Urban Desert Climates

Kutty,

Barakat,

Darsaleh

et al. 2023

Buildings

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“…Nielsen and Kolarik [55] presented a review on existing climate research. They discovered that more than half of their 47 analyzed studies (2015 and newer) used the outdated weather data of CMIP3 (Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), supporting the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based on weather data mostly generated in 2005 and 2006: https://pcmdi.github.i o/mips/cmip3/, accessed on 12 November 2023), partially due to the availability through the CCWorldWeatherGen Tool that easily generates EnergyPlus Weather files.…”

Section: Future Weather Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only five out of the analyzed studies underlined why they chose the selected climate model even though the resulting weather files show high variance and may lead to an erroneous interpretation of the simulation results. The ways to deal with solar radiation data for BPS are manifold in related research, as global horizontal irradiance from GCM and RCM have to be converted to direct normal irradiance and diffuse horizontal irradiance for the use in BPS [55]. They published the results of their study on a continuously updated webpage (FutureWeath-erBPS: www.futureweatherbps.com, accessed on 12 November 2023), currently (November 2023) including data from 82 studies and a total of 210 locations.…”

Section: Future Weather Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We choose the worst-case scenario to underline the potential of thermal comfort analysis during design stage, keeping in mind that all weather data only represent predictions of future scenarios. By using the morphing tool by Rodrigues et al [56], we address the criticism that much research still relies on the outdated climate model CMIP3 [55]. However, for a detailed analysis of climate change's impact on thermal comfort, CMIP6-weather data should be used with specific predictions that match the actual design purpose (e.g., extreme weather summer periods for determination of overheating risks), which has not been taken into account within our proposed demonstration case.…”

Section: Definition Of Weather Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Extending the IFC-Based bim2sim Framework to Improve the Accessibility of Thermal Comfort Analysis Considering Future Climate Scenarios

Richter,

Syndicus,

Frisch

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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Future weather scenarios significantly affect indoor thermal comfort, influencing people’s well-being and productivity at work. Thus, future weather scenarios should be considered in the design phase to improve a building’s climate change resilience for new constructions as well as renovations in building stock. As thermal comfort is highly influenced by internal and external thermal loads resulting from weather conditions and building usage, only a dynamic building performance simulation (BPS) can predict the boundary conditions for a thermal comfort analysis during the design stage. As the model setup for a BPS requires detailed information about building geometry, materials, and usage, recent research activities have tried to derive the required simulation models from the open BIM (Building Information Modeling) Standard IFC (Industry Foundation Classes). However, even if IFC data are available, they are often faulty or incomplete. We propose a template-based enrichment of the BPS models that assists with imputing missing data based on archetypal usage of thermal zones. These templates are available for standardized enrichment of BPS models but do not include the required parameters for thermal comfort analysis. This study presents an approach for IFC-based thermal comfort analysis and a set of zone-usage-based templates to enrich thermal comfort input parameters.

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“…However, this practice does not give an indication of how the proposed building will perform into the future, over the life of the building, particularly in terms of the effect on morbidity, mortality and building services failure [34]. Different techniques have been used to create future climate files for use in building energy modeling [46][47][48], each approach typically including climate scenarios out to 2090 and a range of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), as developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)). In this study, five climate scenarios are considered: current typical meteorological year (TMY) files used in practice and future climate scenarios 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090 for RCP8.5 (business as usual).…”

Section: Climate Weather Filesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of a Warming Climate on Hospital Energy Use and Decarbonization: An Australian Building Simulation Study

Zedan

Liu

et al. 2022

Buildings

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The high energy use of hospitals and healthcare facilities globally contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, a large percentage of this energy use is attributed to space heating, cooling and ventilation, and is hence correlated to the climate. While the energy performance of Australian hospitals at the design stage is evaluated using historical weather data, the impact of the warming climate on Australian hospitals into the future remains unknown. The research question addressed is: What is the impact of future climates on the energy use of Australian hospitals built with the current design conditions? Two archetype hospital models were developed (a small single-story healthcare facility and a large multi-story hospital). DesignBuilder was used to simulate the performance of these models in 10 locations, ranging from the tropics to cool temperate regions in Australia. Current (1990–2015) and future climate files (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2090) were used. The results show that with the warming climate, the heating demand decreased, while the cooling demand increased for both hospital models for all sites. Cooling dominated climates, such as Darwin and Brisbane, were significantly impacted by the changing climates due to a substantial increase in cooling energy use. Heating based climates, such as Hobart and Canberra, resulted in an overall small reduction in total building energy use. In addition, the single-story facility was more impacted by the change in climate (in terms of energy use intensity) than the multi-story facility. The study highlights the importance of future climate files in building simulation and decarbonization planning.

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Utilization of Climate Files Predicting Future Weather in Dynamic Building Performance Simulation – A review

Cited by 8 publications

References 41 publications

A Systematic Review of Climate Change Implications on Building Energy Consumption: Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Hot Urban Desert Climates

A Systematic Review of Climate Change Implications on Building Energy Consumption: Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Hot Urban Desert Climates

Extending the IFC-Based bim2sim Framework to Improve the Accessibility of Thermal Comfort Analysis Considering Future Climate Scenarios

Impact of a Warming Climate on Hospital Energy Use and Decarbonization: An Australian Building Simulation Study

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