Utilizing System Dynamics Modeling to Examine Impact of Deregulation on Generation Capacity Growth

Kadoya, T.; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Ihara, Satoshi; Larose, Éric; Sanford, Mark; Graham, Alan K.; Stephens, Craig; Eubanks, C.K.

doi:10.1109/jproc.2005.857487

Cited by 51 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…System Dynamics was conceived by J. W. Forrester in the 1960's and [4] summarizes its main concepts. On the other hand, regarding the application of System Dynamics to power systems, references [5,6,7] illustrate the application of these concepts to the Generation Expansion Planning problem, GEP, that aims at identifying the most adequate set of generators, including capacities and technologies, to be added to an existing generation system in order to supply the expected demand while complying to some reliability or adequacy indices.…”

Section: General Structure Of the Dynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

Pereira¹,

Saraiva

2012

EPJ Web of Conferences

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Abstract. This paper describes a Dynamic Model of the electricity sector that can be used to simulate the evolution of some key variables on the long term, namely the evolution of the electricity price, of the demand and of the capacity factors of the technologies in the generation mix. This model can be used in different ways and by several agents, for instance to estimate the impact on the electricity price of the increasing presence of renewable power stations, namely using wind power and PV systems. In several countries these stations are paid feed-in tariffs with a fixed price but in some cases this scheme is under discussion and there are opinions that payments determined by the market price are more adequate and would bring fewer costs to final consumers. Such a change has to be carefully evaluated given that the presence of renewable stations bidding at an infra marginal price will affect the price itself. The model described in this paper can be used in a profitable way both by governmental agencies when preparing or studying alternative remuneration schemes to renewable stations or by promoters themselves to get more insight to the profitability of their investments, namely if the fixed feed-in tariffs in force in several countries are changed.

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Section: General Structure Of the Dynamic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

Pereira¹,

Saraiva

2012

EPJ Web of Conferences

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“…It has been shown in some studies [1][2][3][4][5] that deregulation of the electricity industry causes bust and boom cycles of generation capacity due to investment uncertainties. Initially power generators are uncertain on whether they should build a This work is done in the Electrical Power Engineering Centre (EPECentre), University of Canterbury, New Zealand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then substantial overbuilding occurs during high market prices because most generators decide to build new power stations at around the same time [6]. These bust and boom patterns have been observed in the United States [1,3], European countries [4,5] and also New Zealand [6]. Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the impacts of generation capacity cycles in New Zealand

Jalal

Bodger

2011

2011 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition

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“…It has been shown in some studies [3][4][5][6][7] that deregulation of the ESI causes bust and boom cycles of generation capacity due to investment uncertainties. Initially, power generators are uncertain as to whether they should build a new power plant as that may affect the spot price in the power market and hence affect their profit returns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then, substantial overbuilding occurs because most generators compete to build new power stations [8]. This bust and boom pattern has been observed to happen in the United States [3,5] and European countries [6,7]. Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of New Zealand electricity generation expansion in meeting dry year demands

Jalal¹,

Bodger²

2011

2011 IEEE Trondheim PowerTech

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Abstract--After the commencement of the New Zealand Electricity Market (NZEM) in October 1996, generation expansion was made based on the wholesale electricity prices rather than through coordinated government planning. Since then, the installed generation capacity in New Zealand has been observed to follow a bust and boom pattern, resulting in energy shortages during dry winter years. A System Dynamics (SD) model has been developed to study the bust and boom trend. The model is then extended to evaluate whether the generation expansion proposed by the 2008 Statement of Opportunity (SOO2008) will be able to meet future dry winter year demands under the current market mechanism. The evaluation takes into account New Zealand's main storage lake cycles and the El Niño-La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The evaluation shows New Zealand is likely to face future energy shortages during dry years unless mitigation actions are taken.

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Utilizing System Dynamics Modeling to Examine Impact of Deregulation on Generation Capacity Growth

Cited by 51 publications

References 6 publications

Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

Evaluation of the Impact of Wind Generation on the Electricity Market Prices and on the Profitability of New Wind Investments

Evaluating the impacts of generation capacity cycles in New Zealand

Evaluation of New Zealand electricity generation expansion in meeting dry year demands

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