Vaccination strategies against COVID-19 and the diffusion of anti-vaccination views

Abstract

Misinformation is usually adjusted to fit distinct narratives and propagates rapidly through social networks. False beliefs, once adopted, are rarely corrected. Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, pandemic-deniers and people who oppose wearing face masks or quarantine have already been a substantial aspect of the development of the pandemic. With the vaccine for COVID-19, different anti-vaccine narratives are being created and are probably being adopted by large population groups with critical consequences. Assuming full adherence to vaccine administration, we use a diffusion model to analyse epidemic spreading and the impact of different vaccination strategies, measured with the average years of life lost, in three network topologies (a proximity, a scale-free and a small-world network). Then, using a similar diffusion model, we consider the spread of anti-vaccine views in the network, which are adopted based on a persuasiveness parameter of anti-vaccine views. Results show that even if anti-vaccine narratives have a small persuasiveness, a large part of the population will be rapidly exposed to them. Assuming that all individuals are equally likely to adopt anti-vaccine views after being exposed, more central nodes in the network, which are more exposed to these views, are more likely to adopt them. Comparing years of life lost, anti-vaccine views could have a significant cost not only on those who share them, since the core social benefits of a limited vaccination strategy (reduction of susceptible hosts, network disruptions and slowing the spread of the disease) are substantially shortened.

Unmasking COVID-19 Vaccine “Infodemic” in the Social Media

“…A joint statement by WHO et al (2020), regarding the management of COVID-19 pandemic, defined "infodemic", as the overabundance of information, which entailed deliberate attempt to distribute wrong information. Since the vaccinations began, different groups have emerged on social media and made the spreading of misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines and mass immunizations across the globe (Bogart et al, 2021;Paul et al, 2021;Prieto Curiel & González Ramírez, 2021). In January 2020 the WHO has reported that fake news, disinformation, and misinformation threatens COVID-19 vaccines acceptance and COVID-19 vaccination plans across the world.…”

Attention all anti-vaccinators: The cutaneous adverse events from the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are not an excuse to avoid them!

“…Survey data in the United States indicate that approximately 27% of individuals are reluctant to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, with a majority citing concern surrounding potential adverse effects. 1 …”

Opinion Dynamics and the Inevitability of a Polarised and Homophilic Society

“…Polarisation and the way it emerges is one of the key questions in opinion dynamics models [11]. An increasingly polarised society is observed in attitudes towards the COVID-19 pandemic, views in favour or against a vaccine [12], the consumption of media outlets, opinions on social media and many more. Increased exposure to ideas within an homogeneous community intensifies their tendency to be credulous, whether it is to scientific evidence, unsubstantiated rumours, inconclusive evidence or even fake news.…”

“…Interactions between individuals are usually modelled on some social structure, such as a network, considering some spatial proximity, or considering some social aspects, such as the level of influence of one individual to others [30]. A long-term, steady distribution of opinions is usually obtained, either as an analytical solution to some differential equations or through simulations, which reveals among others, the formation of opinion clusters, political segregation [31], vaccine hesitancy [12], the use of certain tools [32], the spread of fear of crime more as a result of opinion dynamics than crime itself [29] or even the diffusion of fake news [14].…”

“…Each wave of propaganda follows a similar diffusion process as the SIR model used in epidemics, where a small percentage of the individuals are initially exposed. The "infection" (the propaganda) passes through individuals, and the distribution of the recovered individuals is observed [12,32].…”