Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries

Kim, Dongwoo; Lee, Young Jun

doi:10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102589

Cited by 27 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…In particular, government responses of countries to cope with COVID-19 can have a high degree of strictness, such as a long period of full lockdown and quarantine, general travel bans at domestic and international level, compulsory facemask coverings indoors and outdoors, and widespread impositions to circulation of people that reduce public and private life in society, etc. (Allen 2022 ; Askitas et al 2021 ; Kim and Lee 2022 ; Wieland 2020 ). The strictness of policy responses to face COVID-19 pandemic crisis can be measured with a combination of different indicators that are aggregated in the stringency index, which is processed by the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker project (Hale et al 2021 ; Stringency Index 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

Coccia

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The goal of the study here is to analyze and assess whether strict containment policies to cope with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis are effective interventions to reduce high numbers of infections and deaths. A homogenous sample of 31 countries is categorized in two sets: countries with high or low strictness of public policy to cope with COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The findings here suggest that countries with a low intensity of strictness have average confirmed cases and fatality rates related to COVID-19 lower than countries with high strictness in containment policies (confirmed cases are 24.69% vs. 26.06% and fatality rates are 74.33% vs. 76.38%, respectively, in countries with low and high strictness of COVID-19 public policies of containment). What this study adds is that high levels of strict restriction policies may not be useful measures of control in containing the spread and negative impact of pandemics similar to COVID-19 and additionally a high strictness in containment policies generates substantial social and economic costs. These findings can be explained with manifold socioeconomic and environmental factors that support transmission dynamics and circulation of COVID-19 pandemic. Hence, high levels of strictness in public policy (and also a high share of administering new vaccines) seem to have low effectiveness to stop pandemics similar to COVID-19 driven by mutant viral agents. These results here suggest that the design of effective health policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be underpinned in a good governance of countries and adoption of new technology, rather than strict and generalized health polices having ambiguous effects of containment in society.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

Coccia

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…Kim & Lee ( 2022 ) argue that COVID-19 related infections and deaths are both negatively associated with the fraction of the population vaccinated with at least one dose. These scholars support, in the short term, the heath policy of extending the interval between first and second dose of administering COVID-19 vaccines associated with non-pharmaceutical measures of control.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

Coccia

2022

Public Organiz Rev

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This study reveals that a vast vaccination campaign is a necessary but not sufficient public policy to reduce the negative impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis because manifold factors guide the spread of this new infectious disease and related mortality in society. Statistical evidence here, based on a worldwide sample of countries, shows a positive correlation between people fully vaccinated and COVID-19 mortality (r = + 0.65, p-value < 0.01). Multivariate regression, controlling income per capita, confirms this finding. Results suggest that the increasing share of people vaccinated against COVID-19 seems to be a necessary but not sufficient health policy to reduce mortality of COVID-19. The findings here can be explained with the role of Peltzman effect, new variants, environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the diffusion and negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic in society. This study extends the knowledge in this research field to design effective public policies of crisis management for facing next pandemic threats.

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“…However, our findings are consistent with previous prospective simulation studies that explored optimal vaccination strategies under different assumptions of VE, stringency of NPIs, vaccine mode of action, and waning immunity. These studies also found that prioritising partial protection of a larger proportion of the population by increasing the dosing interval could reduce the number of hospitalisations and deaths [13][14][15][16][17] . Barmpounakis et al found that the optimal strategy was to prioritise fully vaccinating the most elderly, before switching to a delayed second dose strategy for those under 75 years 41 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have explored the potential impact and optimisation of mass vaccination schedules under different assumptions of vaccine effectiveness (VE), vaccine mode of action, waning immunity, and the degree of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in place 13,14 . They highlighted that more hospitalisations and deaths could be prevented by adopting a delayed second dose strategy, but that results were particularly sensitive to VE assumptions and vaccine mechanisms, underscoring the importance of continued NPIs 15–17 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study

Imai

Rawson

Knock

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: The UK was the first country to start national COVID-19 vaccination programmes, initially administering doses 3-weeks apart. However, early evidence of high vaccine effectiveness after the first dose and the emergence of the Alpha variant prompted the UK to extend the interval between doses to 12-weeks. In this study, we quantify the impact of delaying the second vaccine dose on the epidemic in England. Methods: We used a previously described model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and calibrated the model to English surveillance data including hospital admissions, hospital occupancy, seroprevalence data, and population-level PCR testing data using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We modelled and compared the epidemic trajectory assuming that vaccine doses were administered 3-weeks apart against the real vaccine roll-out schedule. We estimated and compared the resulting number of daily infections, hospital admissions, and deaths. A range of scenarios spanning a range of vaccine effectiveness and waning assumptions were investigated. Findings: We estimate that delaying the interval between the first and second COVID-19 vaccine doses from 3- to 12-weeks prevented an average 64,000 COVID-19 hospital admissions and 9,400 deaths between 8th December 2020 and 13th September 2021. Similarly, we estimate that the 3-week strategy would have resulted in more infections and deaths compared to the 12-week strategy. Across all sensitivity analyses the 3-week strategy resulted in a greater number of hospital admissions. Interpretation: England's delayed second dose vaccination strategy was informed by early real-world vaccine effectiveness data and a careful assessment of the trade-offs in the context of limited vaccine supplies in a growing epidemic. Our study shows that rapidly providing partial vaccine-induced protection to a larger proportion of the population was successful in reducing the burden of COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths. There is benefit in carefully considering and adapting guidelines in light of new emerging evidence and the population in question. Funding: National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Jameel Institute, Wellcome Trust, and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, National Health and Medical Research Council.

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Vaccination strategies and transmission of COVID-19: Evidence across advanced countries

Cited by 27 publications

References 38 publications

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

Effects of strict containment policies on COVID-19 pandemic crisis: lessons to cope with next pandemic impacts

COVID-19 Vaccination is not a Sufficient Public Policy to face Crisis Management of next Pandemic Threats

Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study

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