Vaccine hesitancy for coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in North India

Srivastav, Utkarsh; Tripathi, Avanish Kumar; Kaur, Jaspreet; Devi, Sapna; Verma, Shipra; Singh, Vijay Prakash; Das, Debayan; Singh, Prajjval Pratap; Kumar, Pradeep; Rai, Vandana; Pandey, Rakesh; Chaubey, Gyaneshwer

doi:10.1101/2021.10.24.21265455

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 12 publications

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“…Many lower-income countries lack the infrastructure needed to rapidly deliver vaccines on the scale required, especially where there are large, hard-to-reach population sectors. Similarly, although vaccine hesitancy has been a recognized problem in all nations, in countries where public health messaging and education is limited, hesitancy is becoming a severe limiting factor for increased vaccine coverage 26,31,32 . Future support may, therefore, need to include assistance with vaccine delivery and logistical support in addition to the provision of vaccine doses.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

Moore

Hill

Dyson

et al. 2022

Nat Med

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The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries in 2021, to investigate the global impact of different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted to address this inequity. We quantified the effects of implemented vaccine rollout strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the subsequent global burden of disease and the emergence of novel variants. We found that greater vaccine sharing would have lowered the total global burden of disease, and any associated increases in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reduced relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce the health message, pertinent to future pandemics, that vaccine distribution proportional to wealth, rather than to need, may be detrimental to all.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

Moore

Hill

Dyson

et al. 2022

Nat Med

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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The impacts of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic; a retrospective modelling study

Moore

Hill

Dyson

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. While the protection offered by vaccines (and booster doses) offers a method of mitigating the worst effects, by the end of 2021 the distribution of vaccine was highly heterogeneous with some countries achieving over 90% coverage in adults by the end of 2021, while others have less than 2%. In part, this is due to the availability of sufficient vaccine, although vaccine hesitancy also plays a role. Methods: We use an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries, to investigate the global impact of different vaccine sharing protocols during 2021. We assume a direct relationship between the emergence of variants with increased transmissibility and the cumulative amount of global infection, such that lower global prevalence leads to a lower reproductive number within each country. We compare five vaccine sharing scenarios, from the current situation, through sharing once a particular within-country threshold is reached (e.g. all over 40s have received 2 doses), to full sharing where all countries achieve equal age-dependent vaccine deployment. Findings: Compared to the observed distribution of vaccine uptake, we estimate full vaccine sharing would have generated a 1.5% (PI -0.1 - 4.5%) reduction in infections and a 11.3% (PI 0.6 - 23.2%) reduction in mortality globally by January 2022. The greatest benefit of vaccine sharing would have been experienced by low and middle income countries, who see an average 5.2% (PI 2.5% - 10.4%) infection reduction and 26.8% (PI 24.1% - 31.3%) mortality reduction. Many high income countries, that have had high vaccine uptake (most notably Canada, Chile, UK and USA), suffer increased infections and mortality under most of the sharing protocols investigated, assuming no other counter measures had been taken. However, if reductions in vaccine supply in these countries had been offset by prolonged use of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, we predict far greater reductions in global infection and mortality of 64.5% (PI 62.6% - 65.4%) and 62.8% (PI 44.0% - 76.3%), respectively. Interpretation: By itself, our results suggest that although more equitable vaccine distribution would have had limited impact on overall infection numbers, vaccine sharing would have substantially reduced global mortality by providing earlier protection of the most vulnerable. If increased vaccine sharing from high income nations had been combined with slower easing of non pharmaceutical interventions to compensate for this, a large reduction in both infection and mortality globally would be expected, confounded by a lower risk of new variants arising.

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Vaccine hesitancy for coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in North India

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic

The impacts of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic; a retrospective modelling study

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