Validating a Phenomenological Mathematical Model for Public Health and Safety Interventions Influencing the Evolutionary Stages of Recent Outbreak for Long-Term and Short-Term Domains in Pakistan

Abstract

During the outbreak of an epidemic, it becomes significantly essential to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast the outbreak, including the epidemic peak. Many countries have either implemented strict lockdown to counter the spread of coronavirus disease or taken necessary preventive measures across the world to reduce the outbreak of this epidemic war. Several epidemic models have been presented across the world to examine the effects of public health-related strategies on mitigating the spread of current infectious disease, yet no reputable model has been presented for Pakistan as well as other South-Asian developing countries as per the authors’ knowledge. In this research, an actual coronavirus prediction in Pakistan is presented, which may guide the decision-makers as to how this pandemic has spread across the country and how it can be controlled. Furthermore, in the absence of targeted medicines, the analysis helps to develop a precise plan for the eradication of the outbreak by adopting the calculated steps at the right time. The mathematical phenomenological models have been adopted in this study to predict, project, and simulate the overall affected cases reflected due to the recent outbreak in Pakistan. These models predict the expected growth, and the estimated results are almost well matched with the real cases. Through the calibration of parameters and analyzing the current situation, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Pakistan is reported till the end of this year. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach specific levels are also reported through the simulations. The drastic conditions are also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed. This research quantitatively describes the significant characteristics of the spread of corona cases. It acknowledges and provides an understanding of a short-term and long-term transmission of coronavirus outbreak in the country as three evolutionary phases. Therefore, this research provides a pathway to cope with the emerging threat of a severe outbreak in developing and nondeveloping countries.

Quarantine Effect on Psychological Health Among People of Karachi, Pakistan Due to Pandemic of COVID-19.

“…There was no signi cant difference found between males and females for depression and anxiety; however, females had signi cantly higher stress scores compared to males. According to this present data (collected from May to July 2020) it was analyzed that among both genders the females of Karachi city had higher level of depression (83.5%, p -value 0.045) during rst lockdown (from March to August 2020) due to spread of Corona virus among population (15,16) which is similar to the ndings of other studies where 71% severe depression in another city of Pakistan and 85% in Tunisia was found utmost among female gender (17)(18)(19)(20). As it is known that usually females are psychologically more sensitive by the pandemics and the other sudden changes in life (18).…”

“…Whereas con dence limit percentage selected was 5%, Hypothesized % frequency of outcome factor in the population was 50% and with a population sample of 20711000 (15).…”

BIM Adoption and Its Impact on Planning and Scheduling Influencing Mega Plan Projects‐ (CPEC‐) Quantitative Approach

“…If the value is less than 0.30, this represents that the relationship is somewhat weak between the variables. 0.30 value is considered to be boundary of the weak relationship and considerably strong relationship [39].…”

The Role of Artificial and Nonartificial Intelligence in the New Product Success with Moderating Role of New Product Innovation: A Case of Manufacturing Companies in China

“…is theory states that the valuable, uncommon, distinguishable, and heterogeneous organizational resources should be arranged and integrated efficiently so they may be deployed to the maximum extent of the quality with better market results. As the management capability approach is an extension to the RBV approach, it examines the business shifts, changes in the market trends, production technology, and changes in Complexity customers' tastes and helps the manufacturing firms to perform functions to react to these shifts [23,24]. e management capability theory brings about alternatives in the organization strategies, policies, resources, technology, and production and marketing methods to meet the evolving requirements [25].…”