The purpose of this study was to examine the validity of the 1971-2010
United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) loss-adjusted
food availability (LAFA) per capita caloric consumption estimates. Estimated
total daily energy expenditure (TEE) was calculated for nationally
representative samples of US adults, 20-74 years, using the Institute of
Medicine's predictive equations with “low-active” (TEE
L-ACT) and “sedentary” (TEE SED) physical activity values. TEE
estimates were subtracted from LAFA estimates to create disparity values
(kcal/d). A validated mathematical model was applied to calculate expected
weight change in reference individuals resulting from the disparity. From
1971-2010, the disparity between LAFA and TEE L-ACT varied by 394
kcal/d—(P < 0.001), from −205 kcal/d (95% CI:
−214, −196) to +189 kcal/d (95% CI: 168, 209).
The disparity between LAFA and TEE SED varied by 412 kcal/d (P < 0.001),
from −84 kcal/d (95% CI: −93, −76) to
+328 kcal/d (95% CI: 309, 348). Our model suggests that if LAFA
estimates were actually consumed, reference individuals would have lost
∼1-4 kg/y from 1971-1980 (an accumulated loss of ∼ 12 to
∼36kg), and gained ∼ 3-7 kg/y from 1988-2010 (an accumulated
gain of ∼42 to ∼98 kg). These estimates differed from the actual
measured increments of 10 kg and 9 kg in reference men and women, respectively,
over the 39-year period. The USDA LAFA data provided inconsistent, divergent
estimates of per capita caloric consumption over its 39-year history. The large,
variable misestimation suggests that the USDA LAFA per capita caloric intake
estimates lack validity and should not be used to inform public policy.