Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

Parkin, Geoff; O’Donnell, Greg; Ewen, John; Bathurst, James C.; O’Connell, P. E.; Lavabre, Jacques

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(96)80027-8

Cited by 95 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…However, it also allows the possibility that none of the models will satisfy the limits of acceptability. This was the case for the distributed SHE model study in Parkin et al (1996); for the application of TOPMODEL in Freer et al (2002); and for an algal dynamics study in Van Straten & Keesman (1991). For the present study, there is also no model performance with Nash-Sutcliffe values greater than 0.8, which in China is considered as the minimum requirement for satisfying operational hydrological forecasting standards.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model

Pappenberger

Beven

et al. 2006

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Distributed hydrological models are considered to be a promising tool for predicting the impacts of global change on the hydrological processes at the basin scale. However, distributed models typically require values of many parameters to be specified or calibrated, which exacerbates model prediction uncertainty. This study uses the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) technique to analyse the parameter sensitivities of a distributed hydrological model, LISFLOOD-WB. Discharge time series and event volume data of the Luo River at upstream and downstream sites, Lingkou and Lushi, are used to analyse parameter uncertainty. Eight key parameters in the model are selected for conditioning and sampled using the Monte Carlo method under assumed prior distributions. The results show that maximum efficiency of model performance is lower and the number of behavioural parameter sets giving acceptable performance is fewer in the Lingkou sub-basin than in the Lushi sub-basin with the same criteria of acceptability. For both sub-basins the distribution shape parameter B in the fast runoff generation scheme is the most sensitive in predicting both discharge time series and event volume at the outlet. It is also shown that the value of parameter B at which the highest efficiency is derived is shifted from a high value for Lushi to a low value for Lingkou, consistent with past experience of model calibration that the larger the basin, the larger the B value is. The channel Manning coefficient N c shows some sensitivity in the prediction of discharge time series, but less in the prediction of event volumes. The other key parameters show little sensitivity and good simulations are found across the full range of parameter values sampled. The uncertainty bounds of predicted discharges at the Lushi sub-basin are broad in the peak and narrow in the recession. The normalized difference between the upper and lower uncertainty bounds for both discharge and evapotranspiration are broad in summer and narrow in winter and that of recharge is the opposite.Key words distributed hydrological model; GLUE; parameter calibration; uncertainty Conditionnement de paramétrage et incertitudes de prévision du modèle hydrologique distribué LISFLOOD-WBRésumé Les modèles hydrologiques distribués sont considérés comme un outil prometteur pour la prévision des impacts du changement global sur les processus hydrologiques à l'échelle du bassin versant. Cependant, les modèles distribués nécessitent généralement la spécification ou le calage des valeurs de nombreux paramètres, ce qui aggrave l'incertitude de prévision de la modélisation. Cette étude utilise la technique GLUE (generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) pour analyser les sensibilités de paramétrage du modèle hydrologique distribué LISFLOOD-WB. Des séries temporelles de débit et des données de volume événementiel de la Rivière Luo, au niveau des sites amont et aval de Lingkou et Lushi, sont utilisées pour analyser l'incertitude de paramétrage. Huit paramètres clefs du m...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model

Pappenberger

Beven

et al. 2006

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…During the 1970s and 1980s, the first sedimentary basin distributed physically-based models (DPBMs) were developed based on the finite differences numerical scheme (Abbott et al, 1986;Freeze, 1971;Harbaugh et al, 2000;Ledoux et al, 1989;de Marsily et al, 1978;McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988;Parkin et al, 1996;Perkins and Sophocleous, 1999;Refsgaard and Knudsen, 1996). In this type of approach, the hydrosystem is divided into compartments, which exchange through interfaces.…”

Section: Overview Of Coupled Surface-subsurface Hydrological Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream–aquifer interfaces

Flipo

Mouhri

Labarthe

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models, emphasising the importance of the stream-aquifer interface, are more and more used in hydrological sciences for pluridisciplinary studies aiming at investigating environmental issues. Based on an extensive literature review, stream-aquifer interfaces are described at five different scales: local [10 cm- . This led us to develop the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces, which extends the well-known vision of nested groundwater pathways towards the surface, where the mixing of low frequency processes and high frequency processes coupled with the complexity of geomorphological features and heterogeneities creates hydrological spiralling. This conceptual framework allows the identification of a hierarchical order of the multi-scale control factors of stream-aquifer hydrological exchanges, from the larger scale to the finer scale. The hyporheic corridor, which couples the river to its 3-D hyporheic zone, is then identified as the key component for scaling hydrological processes occurring at the interface. The identification of the hyporheic corridor as the support of the hydrological processes scaling is an important step for the development of regional studies, which is one of the main concerns for water practitioners and resources managers.In a second part, the modelling of the stream-aquifer interface at various scales is investigated with the help of the conductance model. Although the usage of the temperature as a tracer of the flow is a robust method for the assessment of stream-aquifer exchanges at the local scale, there is a crucial need to develop innovative methodologies for assessing stream-aquifer exchanges at the regional scale. After formulating the conductance model at the regional and intermediate scales, we address this challenging issue with the development of an iterative modelling methodology, which ensures the consistency of stream-aquifer exchanges between the intermediate and regional scales.Finally, practical recommendations are provided for the study of the interface using the innovative methodology MIM (Measurements-Interpolation-Modelling), which is graphically developed, scaling in space the three pools of methods needed to fully understand stream-aquifer interfaces at various scales. In the MIM space, stream-aquifer interfaces that can be studied by a given approach are localised. The efficiency of the method is demonstrated with two examples. The first one proposes an upscaling framework, structured around river reaches of ∼ 10-100 m, from the local to the watershed scale. The second example highlights the usefulness of space borne data to improve the assessment of streamaquifer exchanges at the regional and continental scales. We conclude that further developments in modelling and field measurements have to be undertaken at the regional scale to enable a proper modelling of stream-aquifer exchanges from the local to the continental scale.

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“…Although other parameters such as K sat or soil hydrological parameters are reported to be important, a choice was made based on previous studies [34,39,40,85,86] in order to limit run time. Based on the sum of R 2 , KGE, and NSE, several parameter sets gave satisfactory to good quality measures according to the equifinality concept introduced by Beven and Freer [16].…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Applying SHETRAN in a Tropical West African Catchment (Dano, Burkina Faso)—Calibration, Validation, Uncertainty Assessment

Hipt

Diekkrüger

Steup

et al. 2017

Water

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This study presents the calibration and validation of the physically based spatially distributed hydrological and soil erosion model SHETRAN for the Dano catchment, Burkina Faso. A sensitivity analysis of six model parameters was performed to assess the model response and to reduce the number of parameters for calibration. The hydrological component was calibrated and validated using observed discharge data of two years. Statistical quality measures (R 2 , NSE, KGE) ranged from 0.79 to 0.66 during calibration and validation. The calibrated hydrological component was used to feed the erosion modeling. The simulated suspended sediment load (SSL) was compared with turbidity-based measurements of SSL of two years. Achieved quality measures are comparable to other SHETRAN studies. Uncertainties of measured discharge and suspended sediment concentration were determined to assess the propagated uncertainty of SSL. The comparison of measurement uncertainties of discharge and SSL with parameter uncertainty of the corresponding model output showed that simulated discharge and SSL were frequently outside the large measured uncertainty bands. A modified NSE was used to incorporate measurement and parameter uncertainty into the efficiency evaluation of the model. The analyses of simulated erosion sources and spatial patterns showed the importance of river erosion contributing more than 60% to the total simulated sediment loss.

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Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

Cited by 95 publications

References 13 publications

Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model

Parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model

Continental hydrosystem modelling: the concept of nested stream–aquifer interfaces

Applying SHETRAN in a Tropical West African Catchment (Dano, Burkina Faso)—Calibration, Validation, Uncertainty Assessment

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