Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Heiri, Oliver; Brooks, Stephen J.; Renssen, H.; Bedford, Alan; Hazekamp, Mark G.; Ilyashuk, Boris P.; Jeffers, Elizabeth S.; Lang, Barbara H.; Kirilova, Emiliya; Kuiper, Saskia; Millet, Laurent; Samartin, Stéphanie; Tóth, Mónika; Verbruggen, Frederike; Watson, Jenny E.; Asch, Nelleke Van; Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Amon, Leeli; Birks, Hilary H.; Birks, H. J. B.; Mortensen, Morten Fischer; Hoek, Wim Z.; Magyari, Enikő K.; Sobrino, Castor Muñoz; Seppä, Heikki; Tinner, Willy; Tonkov, Spassimir; Veski, Siim; Lotter, André F.

doi:10.1038/ncomms5914

Cited by 154 publications

(177 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…While several environmental factors were found to be significant in our study, temperature was found to explain the largest variation in chironomid assemblage data, as has been shown in the past (Walker et al 1991;Medeiros and Quinlan 2011;Heiri et al 2014). This is not surprising as summer temperatures directly affect chironomid lifecycle development (Danks 2004;Eggermont and Heiri 2012) and is therefore an 'appropriate' variable (Huntley 2012;Juggins 2013) to reconstruct using chironomids.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Chironomid-environment relations in northern North America

et al. 2015

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Chironomid assemblages from the uppermost sediments of 435 lakes spanning northern North America were compared to environmental parameters using direct gradient analysis. This large calibration set was merged from several previously developed regional datasets, and increases the number of modern analogues that are available for use for paleoenvironmental interpretations in this region. Air temperature explained the largest amount of variation in the chironomid assemblages with several other environmental factors accounting for statistical significant amounts of the remaining variance. A robust inference model for deriving past mean July air temperatures from subfossil chironomid assemblages was developed and applied to previously published paleoclimate reconstructions from the High-Arctic, Middle-Arctic, Boreal treeline, and Alpine regions of northern North America. The patterns of the temperature reconstructions from the combined dataset were generally similar to the original reconstructions, but with colder inferred temperatures reflecting the incorporation of a larger number of modern sites from colder climates in the combined dataset. This analysis demonstrated that the larger temperature gradient available in the new training set, when compared to the temperature gradients in the original training sets, provides a better estimation of chironomid-environment relationships. In particular, the optima and tolerances estimated using the larger, combined dataset should be more accurate, and therefore, improve midge-based paleoclimate reconstructions for northern North America. Despite the much larger spatial scale and greater associated environmental heterogeneity now incorporated in the combined dataset, this study suggests that in most cases the overarching constraint governing Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Chironomid-environment relations in northern North America

et al. 2015

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“…The cladoceran-based summer temperature reconstructions from central Poland (12.2-16.5°C) are similar to the cladoceran-based estimates for eastern Poland (11.5-14.5°C; Łukie Lake; Zawiska et al 2014) and to the chironomid-inferred summer temperature estimates for the mid-latitudes (50-55°N) of east and central-southern Europe (Heiri et al 2014). Additionally, the YD temperature values from central Poland studied here are very similar to the estimates from lowlands and mid-elevation (up to 700 m a.s.l.…”

Section: Cladoceran-inferred Temperature Reconstitution and Regional supporting

confidence: 53%

The usefulness of subfossil Cladocera remains in Younger Dryas climatic reconstructions in central Poland

Pawłowski

2017

Acta Geologica Polonica

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ABSTRACT:Pawłowski, D. 2017. The usefulness of subfossil Cladocera remains in Younger Dryas climatic reconstructions in central Poland. Acta Geologica Polonica, 67 (4), 567-584. Warszawa.Cladoceran-based paleotemperature estimates for the Younger Dryas for ten sections of paleo-oxbow lakes, valley mires, and lacustrine sediments from central Poland are presented, and their potential usefulness to climatostratigraphy is described. Most of the changes observed in the cladoceran assemblages are responses to climate changes. The cladoceran-based temperature reconstructions reflect cold conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) and allow a division of this period into two phases: an older colder phase, between 12,800 and 12,000 cal yrs BP, and a younger, warmer phase, between ca. 12,000 and 11,500 cal yrs BP. The geomorphological features of the study sites and local environmental forces are also taken into consideration. The cladoceran-inferred summer temperature estimates from all of the study sites correspond closely with the available climate reconstruction for the YD in central Europe.

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“…A variation of this stacking and splicing procedure has recently been used to produce Lateglacial summer temperature reconstructions for different parts of Europe (Heiri et al, 2014a). Here, we discuss the approach and assumptions associated with it in detail.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%