Value-of-Information - from Cost-Cutting to Value-Creation

Koninx, J.P.M.

doi:10.2523/64390-ms

Cited by 10 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The value-of-information approach emphasizes the reliability of information sources in a consistent sensitivity analysis to see how value of information changes by varying input parameters including reliability. However, it must be noted that aggregated probabilities of incomplete and imperfect data have the potential to erode all value in data acquisition [9], whereby compounding the data also compounds the uncertainties and could create a scenario that the compounded uncertainties mitigate the reliability of the compounded data in the decision-making process.…”

Section: -Value Of Information Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Considering value of information when using CFD in design

Misra

2009

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Section: -Value Of Information Propertiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the oil-drilling industry, value of information has been used to introduce a new risk and opportunity management method and justify the continuation or discontinuation of data acquisition [9]. In this industry, value is measured monetarily.…”

Section: -Applications Of Value Of Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Considering value of information when using CFD in design

Misra

2009

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“…A relevância e aplicabilidade da aná1ise do VDl no processo de decisão e análise de risco de projetos de E&P foi apresentada por vários autores (Clemen,1995;Koninx, 2000;Floris & Peersmann, 2000;Coopersmith & Cunninghan, 2002 Floris & Peé'7'smann (2000) e o emprego de apenas três modelos representativos sub-avaliam o VDI. Portanto, na quantificação do VDl deve-se considerar a possibilidade de cada um dos vários cenários possíveis de um determinado reservatório possuir uma estratégia de produção específica após a obtenção da informação.…”

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Análise econômica da redução de incertezas geológicas de reservatórios de petróleo

Ligero

Risso

Schiozer

2008

RBG

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Resumo Reservatórios de petró1eo, nas fases de avaliação e desenvolvimento, possuem elevado número de incertezas geológicas, que influenciam significativamente na recuperação de óleo e gás. Tais incertezas podem ser reduzidas ou até mesmo eliminadas pela obtenção de informações, que são fimdamentais para mitigar o risco envolvido em projetos, mas em contrapartida possuem um custo associado. A viabilidade econômica da obtenção de uma ou mais inforinações adicionais (completa ou incompleta) pode ser quantificada pelo Valor de lnformação (VDI). A metodologia de cá1culo do VDl apresentada neste trabalho baseia-se na combinação dos atributos geológicos incertos através da árvore de derivação, onde cada ramo da árvore representa um modelo de simulação do reservatório. A quantificação do VDI, no caso ideal, deveria considerar os beneficios que poderiam ser obtidos pelo emprego das estratégias de produção mais adequadas para cada um dos possíveis cenários geolÓgicos. Na prática, a determinação de uma estratégia de produção otimizada para cada modelo da árvore é inviável, pois o número de modelos cresce exponencialmente com o aumento do número de atributos incertos. Deste modo, as incertezas geológicas são representadas pelos Modelos Geológicos Representativos (MGR) -modelos selecionados por um procedimento definido e usados como base para a determinação de diferentes estratégias de produção, a fim de considerar os beneficios de informações adicionais. No exemplo usado neste trabalho, um poço adicional foi perfiirado em um reservatório de ó1eo na fase de desenvolvimento, com elevado grau de incertezas geológicas, para redução da incerteza e estudo da viabilidade econômica da obtenção da infomação que foi avaliada pelo cá1culo do VDI.Pc}/c}v7~czs-cãczve.. Incertezas geológicas, modelos geológicos representativos, valor de informação.Alhstrg.ti Economic f ;easibility of reduction of geologícal uncertainties in petroleum rese"oír. Petroleum reservoirs in appraisal and development phases have high number of geological uncertainties with strong influence in oil and gas recovery. These uncertainties can be reduced or eliminated through additional infomation acquisitions that are ftindamental to mitigate the risk of projects; however, the acquisition of new information has an associated cost. The economic viability to obtain one or more information (complete or incomplete) can be quantified by the Value of lnfomation (Vol). The methodology to Vol calculation used in this work is based on the combination of uncertain geological attributes by the derivative tree technique, where each branch of the tree represents a reservoir simulation model. The Vol quantification, in the ideal case, should consider the benefits that could be obtained using the most adequate production strategy for each possible geo1ogical scenario. In practice, it is not viable to optimize the production strategy of each model that constitutes the derivative tree. Therefore, the geological uncertainties are represented by Geological Representative Models (MGR),...

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Maximizing Value of Information of a Horizontal Polymer Pilot Under Uncertainty

Steineder

Clemens

Osivandi

et al. 2018

SPE Europec Featured at 80th EAGE Conference and Exhibition

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Polymer injection might lead to incremental oil recovery and increase the value of an asset. Several steps have to be taken to mature a polymer injection project. The field needs to be screened for applicability of polymer injection, laboratory experiments have to be performed, and a pilot project might be required prior to field implementation. The decision to perform a pilot project can be based on a Value of Information (VoI) calculation. The VoI can be derived by performing a workflow capturing the impact of the range of geological scenarios as well as dynamic and polymer parameters on incremental Net Present Value (NPV). The result of the workflow is a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of NPV linked to prior distributions of model parameters and potential observables from the polymer injection pilot. The impact of various parameters on the CDF of the field-wide NPV can be analyzed and in turn used to decide on what measurements from the pilot have a strong sensitivity on the NPV CDF and are thus informative. In the case shown here, the water cut reduction in the pilot area has a strong impact on the NPV CDF of the polymer injection field implementation. To extract maximum information, the response of the pilot for water cut reduction needs to be optimized under uncertainty. To calculate the VoI, the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) difference of a decision tree with and without the pilot can be used if the Decision Maker (DM) is risk neutral. However, if the DM requires hurdle values through a Probability of Economic Success (PES), Value Functions (VF) and Decision Weights according to the Prospect Theory should be used. Applying risk hurdles requires a consistent use of VFs and Decision Weights for calculating VoI and the Probability of Maturation (POM) of projects.

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Value-of-Information - from Cost-Cutting to Value-Creation

Cited by 10 publications

References 2 publications

Considering value of information when using CFD in design

Considering value of information when using CFD in design

Análise econômica da redução de incertezas geológicas de reservatórios de petróleo

Maximizing Value of Information of a Horizontal Polymer Pilot Under Uncertainty

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