Value Predicate Analysis: A Language‐Based Tool for Diagnosing Behavioral Tendencies of Religious or Value‐Based Groups in Regions of Conflict

Abstract

This article introduces a language‐based tool for addressing the role of religion in violent conflicts. Value predicate analysis (VPA) is an easily transportable, relatively uncomplicated early warning tool for measuring the probable near‐future behavior of modest‐sized religious groups in settings of potential conflict. We show that it is possible to identify a range of nine types of probable group behavior toward other groups. This approach significantly refines current binary assessments of violent/not‐violent group conduct. The authors (1) provide a warrant for diagnosing religion‐group behavior through performative analysis; (2) present a theoretical overview of VPA; (3) summarize their research, data analysis, and field collection methods; (4) present field test results; and (5) conclude with recommendations for further research.

Read the Signs: Detecting Early Warning Signals of Interreligious Conflict

“…As indicated in Figures 1-3, changes in value-term usage are measured as changes in semantic range, which refers to the technical measures of the likelihood that speakers and listeners will assign or tolerate any one of nine degrees of change in the character of value-term usage. The following three figures compare semantic range averages from focus groups in three different but closely related religious groups (Ochs et al 2019). The graph indicates that student groups from a traditional seminary tended to associate significant value terms with from 4 to 6 different meanings.…”

“…We have introduced our scientific tools and field-testing resultsin recent and forthcoming publications (Ochs et al 2019;Ochs 2019a;Ochs 2022).…”

“…Examined through manual field observations, and re-examined by way of natural language processing tools, the signals are consistently associated with up to nine different types of near-future group behavior, including linguistic and dispositional behaviors. After five years of field testing in regions of high tension and verbal, but nonlethal, conflict, the team constructed several diagnostic tools that are of potential use to peacekeepers and peacemakers in regions of conflict (Ochs et al 2019;Ochs 2019a;Ochs 2022) 3 . The team's current effort is to share its most refined and reliable diagnostic tools with government, the United Nations, and nongovernmental agencies, who might employ these tools to help identify and ameliorate settings of imminent violent conflict among religious groups.…”

Religion and Peace—Anatomy of a Love–Hate Relationship

“…Alternative readings may or may not be allowed. A recent study points to the correlation between the legitimacy of different meanings of a given term and conflictive situations (Ochs et al 2018). Those perceived to have authority within a given framework can use their influence for purposes of peace, such as Pope John XXIII in his influential encyclical Pacem in terris (1963), or to incite violence and conflict, such as some Catholic priests during the Rwandan genocide (cf.…”

On the Significance of Religion in Conflict and Conflict Resolution

“…On the one hand, contestation can refer to the acknowledgment of the legitimacy of diff erent interpretations. Recent studies point to a correlation between confl ict and allowing or not allowing for diff erent meanings of a term (Ochs et al 2018 ). On the other hand, acknowledging diverse interpretations is only the fi rst step.…”