Variabilidade Climática de Regiões Pluviometricamente Homogêneas na Amazônia Ocidental (Climate Variability of Rainfall Homogeneous Regions in the Amazônia Ocidental)

Santos, Daris Correia dos; Medeiros, Raimundo Mainar de; Santos, Daiane Correia; Brito, José Ivaldo Barbosa de

doi:10.26848/rbgf.v6.4.p903-918

Cited by 4 publications

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Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil

Oliveira

Serrano

Mesquita

et al. 2021

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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Extreme hydrological events have gained notoriety in recent decades, thus recommended elements of decision-making assistance are important. In this context, this study focused on analyzing the temporal behavior of the maximum rainfall and waterflow recorded in the city of Rio Branco, Acre (Brazil), in addition to analyzing their frequencies, highlighting the reference quantiles and their reported probabilities of recurrence. The results pointed to a linearly upward trend, both for flow and rainfall, but these differences were not statistically significant according to the Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests (α = 5%), leading to the conclusion for the occurrence of changes in hydrological patterns in Rio Branco, although statistically non-significant. However, it is warned to the precocity of attributing the main cause of such changes to either anthropic or natural actions. Regarding frequency analysis, it was found that Gumbel distribution is proper to the adjustment of the studied data, thus, it is possible to determine the lifetime associated with hydrological risk and the useful lifespan of a project aiming at planning actions in the face of the impacts of extreme events, especially in a scenario of severe floods.

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Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil

Oliveira

Serrano

Mesquita

et al. 2021

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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Rain Probability for the City of Rio Branco in the Western Brazilian Amazon

Taveira,

Costa,

Melhorança Filho

et al. 2023

Rev. bras. meteorol.

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The need to predict the occurrence of rainfall events is essential for planning urban and rural activities. Thus, the objective of this work was to estimate the probable values of rainfall at different levels of probability for the city of Rio Branco, Acre, from the total monthly rainfall records, computed from the historical series from 1970 to 2021. The method of maximum-likelihood was used for estimate the parameters of the Gamma distribution. In the evaluation of the historical rainfall series, it was observed that from june to august is considered the period with less rainfall, while from november to march it is considered the rainy period in the study region. The estimated values of rainfall at different levels of probability for the city of Rio Branco, Acre, allowed verifying that during the period from 1970 to 2021, the estimates comprised in the range of 50% of probability were similar to the monthly average values of the rainfall recorded in the municipality. Therefore, the rainfall values estimated in the present study are tools to support decision-making, especially with regard to planning and undertaking urban and rural activities in the city of Rio Branco.

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Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

Moreira,

Almeida,

Silva

et al. 2024

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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Preventing the occurrence of extreme hydrological events exceeds the current abilities of humanity. However, using adequate tools to estimate the probability associated with different values of hydrological variables, such as heavy rainfall, can help mitigate social and environmental damage. This study aimed to verify the hypothesis that the records of maximum rainfall, at different intervals of duration, in the three main rainfall stations in the state of Acre fit the log-normal distribution of two parameters (LN2) and, therefore, to evaluate the events of heavy rainfalls, based on the association between the duration of the rain and the return period. The equations conformed to the classic model of the LN2 model using the method of maximum likelihood once the baseline assumption of stationarity was met using the Mann-Kendall test. Adherence to the model was verified using the Anderson-Darling test. The adjusted distributions allowed for estimating the rainfall intensity at different durations and return periods for the cities of Cruzeiro do Sul, Tarauacá, and Rio Branco and are relevant elements for planning actions aimed at strengthening the components of water safety in the state of Acre.

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Variabilidade Climática de Regiões Pluviometricamente Homogêneas na Amazônia Ocidental (Climate Variability of Rainfall Homogeneous Regions in the Amazônia Ocidental)

Cited by 4 publications

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Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil

Temporal Trend and Estimation of the Hydrological Risk of Maximum Rainfall and Flow Extremes in the City of Rio Branco, Acre, Brazil

Rain Probability for the City of Rio Branco in the Western Brazilian Amazon

Heavy rainfall events in the state of Acre, western Amazonia

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