Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

Ning, Liang; Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Chen, Kefan; Mao, Yan; Jin, Chunhan; Wang, Qianru

doi:10.3390/atmos10010007

Cited by 26 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…A megadrought is usually defined as a persistent drought event with a duration longer than a decade (Coats et al, 2013; Ault et al, 2014; Cook et al, 2016). In this study, we chose the definition of megadrought as a period with precipitation anomalies (relative to the long term average across the 850-1850) less than 0 for 11 years and less than 1 standard deviation for at least 1 year (Ning et al, 2019). To be consistent with the reconstructed data, the simulated regional area-averaged precipitation anomalies are first 10-year running averaged before identifications of megadroughts.…”

Section: Definition Of Megadroughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the large heat capacity, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can influence the large-scale atmospheric circulations, and ultimately induce the decadal megadroughts in eastern China through influencing the EASM and EAWM (Ning et al, 2019). Previous studies (e.g., Yang et al, 2017) also suggest that SSTA over the tropics and North Pacific Ocean affect the decadal variability of precipitation over the eastern China by regulating the EASM, inducing the decadal variability in the south-north dipole pattern of precipitation over the eastern China.…”

Section: Origins Of the Circulation Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Due to the long durations of megadroughts, last millennium is a typical period used to investigate the variabilities and mechanisms of megadroughts over the eastern China (Ning et al, 2019). Previous studies (e.g., Zheng et al, 2006;Shen et al, 2007), showed that many long-term and large-scale droughts have occurred over the eastern China during last millennium, based on the reconstructed data, including tree rings, historical documents and so on.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

Qin

Ning

Chen

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The simulated spatiotemporal characteristics and variability of decadal megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium of 7 model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3) archive were assessed, and the corresponding mechanisms of the megadroughts were also investigated. The simulated megadrought features of frequencies, durations, magnitudes and spatial distributions were compared with reconstructed data. Comparison showed that climate models can reasonably reproduce the major features of megadroughts, however, the simulated megadroughts are not temporal synchronous with the reconstructed megadroughts, indicating that the internal variability rather than external forcing initiates the observed megadroughts. The simulated spatial distributions of wind and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies during megadrought years showed that megadroughts over the eastern China corresponded to weakening of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and strengthening of the East Asia Winter Monsoon (EAWM). A pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) with significant negative SSTA over the western central North Pacific and significant positive SSTA over eastern North Pacific and equatorial Pacific, resembling a positive PDO-like pattern, was found to suppress precipitation in eastern China. Therefore, it could be concluded that that internal climate variability is the main trigger of the megadroughts over the eastern China, while the North Pacific decadal variability is considered the key driving factor influencing the EASM and EAWM. K E Y W O R D S climate dynamics, climate modelling, east Asia climate change and climate variability, east Asian summer monsoon, eastern China, megadrought, models assessment

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Section: Definition Of Megadroughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Origins Of the Circulation Anomaliesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

Qin

Ning

Chen

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Drought events have increased in frequency and intensity in several regions of the planet in recent decades [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. According to [12], while droughts represented only 4% of total economic losses (US$124 billion) in the period of 1998-2017, research conducted by Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in 2011 [13] related to 2481 disasters where information was available, when considering the impact of disasters according to their type, found that droughts cause significantly greater losses on national economies than other types of disasters, with almost 40% of droughts studied provoking damage equal to or greater than 0.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country where they occurred.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019

et al. 2019

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Drought-related disasters are among the natural disasters that are able to cause large economic and social losses. In recent years, droughts have affected different regions of Brazil, impacting water, food, and energy security. In this study, we used the Integrated Drought Index (IDI), which combines a meteorological-based drought index and remote sensing-based index, to assess the drought events from 2011 to 2019 over Brazil. During this period, drought events were observed throughout the country, being most severe and widespread between the years 2011 and 2017. In most of the country, the 2014/15 hydrological year stands out due to the higher occurrence of severe and moderate droughts. However, drought intensity and observed impacts were different for each region, which is shown by the different case studies, assessing different types of impacts caused by drought in Brazil. Thus, it is fundamental to evaluate the impacts of droughts in a continental country such as Brazil, where a variety of vegetation, soil, land use, and especially different climate regimes predominate.

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“…Some studies also found that volcano-induced droughts usually persist longer over the ocean than the land [13].Eastern China is a typical monsoon domain, which is severely impacted by extreme drought events [15,16]. Some studies found that many drought events in the world are triggered primarily by internal variability of climate system [17][18][19]. Meanwhile, external forcings such as strong volcanic eruptions can also cast significant effects on the droughts over the Eastern China [2].…”

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confidence: 99%

The Influences of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions with Different Magnitudes on Persistent Droughts over Eastern China

et al. 2020

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In this study, the influences on persistent droughts over Eastern China from tropical volcanic eruptions with three categories of magnitudes, i.e., 25 Tg, 50 Tg, and 100 Tg, were investigated through three groups of volcanic sensitivity experiments based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The results showed that, the 25 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions are too weak to significantly influence the regional precipitation changes over Eastern China, while the 50 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions can strongly intensify droughts and prolong the drought conditions for about five years. Both the extension and intensification of the drought conditions induced by 100 Tg tropical volcanic eruption are the largest among the three sensitivity experiments. These drought conditions are mainly caused by the weakened East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM), and their extension and intensification depend on the strength of the volcanic eruptions. The intensities of weakened EASMs after volcanic eruptions are associated with the distinct ocean-land thermal contrast after eruptions. The ocean-land thermal contrast is the largest after the 100 Tg tropical volcanic eruptions, while it is much weaker after the 25 Tg volcanic eruptions. The durations of drought extensions are determined by the recovery rates of the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), which are associated with the magnitudes of the volcanic eruptions.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 210 2 of 14 regional climate changes at different spatiotemporal scales and fundamentally affect the development of human communities, great efforts have been devoted to investigating the influences of volcanic eruptions on regional climate changes [2]. Many studies have confirmed that volcanic activities can produce global-scale cooling in the short term [3][4][5] and trigger a long-term cooling in the Arctic through the positive feedback of ice and snow cover [6]. The initiation of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was also found to be associated with volcanic eruptions and sustained due to the feedback between the sea ice and ocean [7].The impacts of volcanic eruptions on regional temperature and precipitation changes have attracted much attention recently [8]. Both reconstructed data and model simulations demonstrated that, on a global scale, volcanic eruptions can lead to rainfall deficit in summer monsoon regions over the world [9], with the largest precipitation decreases occurring in tropical areas [10]. On a regional scale, Northern Hemisphere volcanic eruptions are more likely to reduce Northern Hemispheric monsoon precipitation than equatorial and southern monsoon rainfall [11]. Large volcanic eruptions in the past millennium triggered anomalous dry conditions in Asia [12,13], but it was relatively wetter over the southeast part while drier in the central part [12]. In Europe, strong volcanic eruptions induced an aridity in the central part, while relative wetter conditions existed in the northern part [14]. Some studies also found that volcano-induced droughts usually persist longer over the ocean than ...

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Variability and Mechanisms of Megadroughts over Eastern China during the Last Millennium: A Model Study

Cited by 26 publications

References 56 publications

Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

Assessment of PMIP3 model simulations of megadroughts over the eastern China during the last millennium

Extreme Drought Events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019

The Influences of Tropical Volcanic Eruptions with Different Magnitudes on Persistent Droughts over Eastern China

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