This paper examines the development of programs delivering personal care to the elderly and disabled. First, we report the latest national participant and expenditure trend data for the three main personal care programs: the Medicaid Personal Care Services (PCS) benefit, Medicaid 1915(c) waivers, and the Older Americans Act Title III. Second, to examine interstate variation revealed in the trend analysis, we present three time-series regression models of personal care development (expenditures, participants, and existence of PCS benefit) that control for state socioeconomic, political, policy, and provider characteristics. Positive predictors of personal care development include: percentages of population aged 85 and older, and nonwhite; per capita income; and liberal state politics. Negative predictors of personal care development include rates of Medicare home health users and hospital beds.In 2003, the provision of institutional longterm care (LTC) (e.g., in nursing homes) consumed nearly 70% of LTC expenditures within the joint federal-state Medicaid program, which is the largest single payer of LTC (Eiken, Burwell, and Schaefer 2004). Policymakers, however, face mounting pressures to extend home and community-based service (HCBS) alternatives to institutional care that help the aged and disabled live independently . Previous studies have analyzed many aspects of national HCBS development and provided case studies of HCBS in selected states (e.g., Kane et al. 1998;Kitchener et al. 2005). Less is known about individual HCBS such as the skilled home health care delivered by nurses, and personal care, which is long-term assistance with functional tasks including activities of daily living (ADLs) such as bathing and eating, and instrumental ADLs (IADLs) such as shopping and preparing meals (LeBlanc, Tonner, and Harrington 2001;Stone 2001).Policymakers' growing concern for personal care arises from the longstanding consumer pressures to expand all HCBS that were given greater ''voice'' by the 1999 Supreme Court Olmstead decision . In addition, two factors have increased consumer demand for communitybased personal care. First, among the 13.2 million U.S. adults who receive personal care, it is estimated that more than 85% of care hours are provided informally (unpaid) by Martin Kitchener, M.B.A., Ph.D., is a professor; Terence Ng, M.A., is a research associate; Helen Carrillo, M.S., is a program analyst; and Charlene Harrington, Ph.D., is a professor, all in the Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco. Nancy Miller, Ph.D., is an associate professor in