Variations in Forearc Stress and Changes in Principle Stress Orientations Caused by the 2004–2005 Megathrust Earthquakes in Sumatra, Indonesia

Rafie, Muhammad Taufiq; Cummins, P. R.; Sahara, David P.; Widiyantoro, Sri; Triyoso, Wahyu; Nugraha, Andri Dian

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.712144

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…3a, consistent with the previous studies, the results of the 2004 seismic stress change analysis confirmed that the earthquake was a triggering earthquake preceding the Nias earthquake in early 2005 [14], [32]. Moreover, the earthquake had also induced movement of part of the intraplate zone [5], [10], [14], [33]. Eight years later, a series of earthquakes known as "doublet earthquakes" with magnitudes of Mw 8.5 and 8.8 occurred [10], [34].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Analysis of Change of Seismic Stress Along the Sumatran Zone to Predict Potential Earthquake Zones

Jihad¹

2023

GEOMATE

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A seismic stress change analysis is a powerful method to investigate the relationship of earthquakes, sequences, aftershocks, and potential seismic zones. In previous studies, the analysis was demonstrated by studying earthquake activity to assess seismic hazards on strike-slip, normal, and collisional thrust faults. Unfortunately, seismic stress changes in complex systems, such as subduction and intraplate earthquakes, have not been fully observed, to our knowledge. The objective of the research is to investigate seismic stress changes and their potential effects on the Sumatra subduction zone by using Colomb Stress Change Analysis (Colomb 3.3). The investigation is focused on high-accuracy major earthquake events, during the period of 2004 to 2019, and 50 major earthquakes within a period of 15 years are taken into account to investigate potential zones. Different from previous work, we included temporal and spatial analysis in order to estimate possible future significant seismic events. The results show that the 2004 Aceh-Andaman earthquake triggered the 2005 Nias earthquake as also suggested by previous study. Meanwhile, the 2008 earthquake (Mw 7.2) triggered the Padang earthquake (2009). Our new finding suggests that the 2008 earthquake also provided a positive impulse for the 2010 Mentawai earthquake. Several potential earthquake zones are found at depths of 20 to 50 km in Bengkulu, of 60 to 80 km in Mentawai. The results of this study can be a key to understanding the probability of seismic and tsunami hazards in Sumatra, which is also applicable to other potentially hazardous areas in Indonesia.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Analysis of Change of Seismic Stress Along the Sumatran Zone to Predict Potential Earthquake Zones

Jihad¹

2023

GEOMATE

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“…Relatively low background stress has been found for numerous strikeslip earthquakes, including 1992 M7.3 Landers, California (Hardebeck & Hauksson, 2001;Yin & Rogers, 1995), 2016 M6.5 and M7.3 Kumamoto, Japan (Yoshida et al, 2016), 2019 M7.1 Ridgecrest, California (Sheng & Meng, 2020;Wang & Zhan, 2020), two M6 earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (Hensch et al, 2016), and the shallow oblique-slip portion of the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake (Feng et al, 2020). Near complete stress drop was found for megathrust earthquakes including 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan (Hasegawa et al, 2011(Hasegawa et al, ), 2004 M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman (Rafie et al, 2021;Silpa & Earnest, 2020), 2010 M8.8 Maule, Chile (Hardebeck, 2012), and 2006M8.3 Kuril Islands (Hardebeck, 2012.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earth's Free Surface Complicates Inference of Absolute Stress From Earthquake‐Induced Stress Rotations

Hardebeck

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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The stress redistribution from an earthquake can produce localized measurable rotations of the principal stress axes if the absolute level of differential stress in the crust is on the order of the earthquake stress drop. Two simple analytic solutions have been developed to estimate the differential stress from an observed stress rotation. However, each has assumptions that may not be accurate near Earth's free surface. I model synthetic earthquakes in an elastic half‐space, and show that the assumptions of the methods are accurate for strike‐slip earthquakes, and for deep dip‐slip earthquakes. However, they are incorrect for shallow dip‐slip earthquakes. I introduce a free surface correction for one of the methods for dip‐slip earthquakes. I revise an analysis of stress rotations due to great subduction zone earthquakes, including this correction. The results support the original conclusion of near complete stress drop for many shallow subduction zone earthquakes.

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“…It implies that the stress interaction can affect the forearc area's seismicity, as Pollitz et al (2006) and suggested. An obvious example is that the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake caused changes in seismic activity in the Andaman Sea (Sevilgen et al, 2012) and produced earthquakes in 2005 in Nias and the northern part of the Sumatra fault zone (McClosky et al, 2005;Pollitz et al, 2006;Rafie et al, 2021;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

Triyoso

2023

Front. Earth Sci.

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The probabilistic seismic hazard function (PSHF) before large earthquake events based on the hypothesis earthquake forecast algorithm using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is performed in this study. The motivation for using the AIC is to better understand the reliability model used to construct the PSHF. The PSHF as the function of the b-value is calculated based on a 5-year window length with a 1-year moving window (instantaneous PSHF) before a large earthquake event. The AIC is calculated based on the likelihood of success and failure using shallow earthquake catalog data around the west coast of Sumatra Island. The probability of occurrence defines the success criteria as more significant than the average probability of greater than or equal to the given magnitude; otherwise, it is defined as failure. Seismic potency has been determined based on the likelihood of an earthquake occurring in several decades or a hundred years. The seismicity rate model is developed based on the integrated data of pre-seismic shallow crustal movement data and the shallow crustal earthquake catalog data. Furthermore, the AIC is calculated based on the likelihood of success and failure as a function of b(t). The b(t) is the change in the b-value as a time function estimated based on shallow earthquake data from 1963 to 2016. In addition, the AIC before M7.9 of 2000, M8.5 of 2007, and M7.8 of 2010 is assessed. The δAIC is then introduced as a function of (AICmodel–AICreference) during the observation time. The positive δAIC implies that the likelihood of having a large earthquake is more significant; otherwise, it is smaller. By plotting the time of observation versus δAIC and the PSHF estimated as the function of b(t), we could identify a large positive gradient and increase the PSHF at each certain probability exceedance (PE) level before the great earthquake event. It consistently happened for the three events that were evaluated. It suggested that the results of this study might be very beneficial for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and seismic mitigation realization.

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Variations in Forearc Stress and Changes in Principle Stress Orientations Caused by the 2004–2005 Megathrust Earthquakes in Sumatra, Indonesia

Cited by 9 publications

References 59 publications

Analysis of Change of Seismic Stress Along the Sumatran Zone to Predict Potential Earthquake Zones

Analysis of Change of Seismic Stress Along the Sumatran Zone to Predict Potential Earthquake Zones

Earth's Free Surface Complicates Inference of Absolute Stress From Earthquake‐Induced Stress Rotations

Probabilistic seismic hazard function based on spatiotemporal earthquake likelihood simulation and Akaike information criterion: The PSHF study around off the west coast of Sumatra Island before large earthquake events

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