Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

Abstract

This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center, in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China. The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed. The main agro-climatic resource factors include: the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10°C (≥10°C), the first frost date, the days of growing period, the ≥10°C accumulated temperature, and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period. The results showed that: (1) in the coming 100 years, the first date of ≥10°C would be significantly advanced, and the first frost date would be delayed. The days of growing period would be extended, the ≥10°C accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased. However, no significant change was found in precipitation. (2) Due to the climate change, the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China, and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward. (3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast. (4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date. In recent yeas, global climate change has become a hot issue. The fourth assessment report of IPCC showed that the average global temperature had increased 0.74±0.18°C in the recent 100 years [1], and the linear trend of recent 50 years would be almost twice as much as that of recent 100 years [2]. Researches showed that due to future climate change, the agricultural production pattern and crop planting system would be changed, and the agriculture production cost and investment cost would be increased [3,4], which would have an important influence on food security production [5]. The climate warming led to an obvious increase in the temperature and aridity, and a decrease in the precipitation due to the high latitude of Northeast China, which had a great influence on agriculture production [6,7]. From the 1980s, there was an obvious and sustaining increase in the temperature in northeast plain under global warming. The average temperature of 1980s-1990s in northeast plain was increased by 1.0-2.5°C [8] compared with that of 1960s-1970s, and the warming amplitudes was the largest among all the agriculture areas in the country. As a result, how to adapt to climate change of the food production in northeast plain had become a universal concern. At present, there were a lot of research results on the temperature, precipitation and the variation o...

Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China

“…Over the past 50 years, Heilongjiang Province and Jilin Province were more conducive to the spring maize growth and its yield formation, due to increased suitability and cooperation of climatic resources. Our study likewise recorded a geographical expansion of maize over the years, supporting the theory of a northward spatiotemporal expansion of maize cultivation (Olesen et al, 2007;Odgaard et al, 2011;Yuan et al, 2012;Liu et al, 2013).…”

“…Here, we mainly consider three climatic factors (light, temperature, and water) which play decisive roles in spring maize growth in Northeast China. The growth periods of spring maize are further divided into four stages based on collected valid data and the result of Yuan et al (2012): from germination to emergence, from emergence to jointing, from jointing to tasseling, and from tasseling to maturity. The subordinate functions of light, temperature, and water during the different growth periods of spring maize in Northeast China are established and comprehensively evaluated.…”

“…Air temperatures in this region are estimated to have increased over the past 50 years, with a rate of 0.38 C per decade. These large increases in temperature are thought to have considerable impacts on the agricultural climatic resources (Walker and Schulze, 2008;Zhao et al, 2010;Chen et al, 2011;Yuan et al, 2012;Guo et al, 2013), maize growth and harvest (Tao et al, 2008;Chen et al, 2011), crop yield (Wolf and Van Diepen, 1995;Jones and Thornton, 2003;Tao and Zhang, 2010;Zhao et al, 2011), and northern planting limits (Liu et al, 2013;Zhao and Guo, 2013). For example, Guo et al (2013) predicted the effects of climate change on the agricultural climatic resource utilization from 1951 to 2100, using the high-resolution RegCM3 (0.25 Â 0.25 ) daily data.…”

Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain

“…The potential light-temperature productivity of summer corn (PTP, unit kg ha −1 ), determined by radiation and temperature, represents the maximum potential crop yield under stress-free condition [23]. In this study, we first estimated the photosynthetic productivity (PP, unit kg ha −1 ) by using an empirical model, which has been widely used in calculating potential crop productivity in China [34,35]:…”

Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

“…The use of such highresolution regional models could greatly improve simulations of contemporary climate and provide more reliable forecasts . Detailed descriptions of RegCM3 data correction methods and validation in Northeast China could be found in Yuan et al (2012). This current study presents our first attempt to use corrected data from the RegCM3 climate model to evaluate quantitatively the spatial-temporal dynamics of cropping systems, potential productivity and agricultural climatic resource utilization in Northeast China under future climate scenarios.…”