Verbal interventions of the National Bank of Ukraine: The impact of exchange rate

Anufriieva, Kateryna; Shapoval, Yuliia

doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2019/12-3/8

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Other relevant papers in this line of literature include Ranaldo and Rossi (2010), Hayo and Neuenkirch (2012), Riordan et al (2013) and Kubacki (2014). The related studies for emerging markets are Andrle (2009), Kubacki (2014) and Anufriieva and Shapoval (2019), among others.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland

Wolski

Bolek²,

Gajdka³

et al. 2023

QRFM

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Purpose This study aims to answer the question whether investment funds managers exhibit behavioural biases in their investment decisions. Furthermore, it investigates if fund managers, as a group of institutional investors, make decisions in response to central bank’s communication as well as other information in relation to various behavioural inclinations. Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive study was conducted based on a questionnaire, which is composed of three main parts exploring: (1) general information about the funds under the management of the surveyed group of fund managers, (2) factors that influence the investment process with an emphasis on the National Bank of Poland communication and (3) behavioural inclinations of the surveyed group. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was applied for measuring the reliability of the survey questionnaire and then chi-squared test was used to investigate the relationships between the answers provided in the survey. Findings The central bank’s communication matters for investors, but its impact on their decisions appears to be only moderate. Interest rates were found to be the most important announcements for investment fund managers. The stock market was the most popular market segment where the investments were made. The ultra-short time horizon played no, or only small, role in the surveyed fund managers’ decisions as most of them invested in a longer horizon covering 1 to 5 years. Moreover, most respondents declared that they considered in their decisions the information about market expectations published in the media. Finally, majority of the fund managers manifested limited rationality and were subject to behavioural biases, but the decisions and behavioural inclinations were independent and, in most cases, they did not influence each other. Practical implications The results reported in this study can be used in practice to better understand and to improve the fund managers’ decision-making processes. Originality/value Apart from the commonly tested behavioural biases in the group of institutional investors in the existing literature, such as loss aversion, disposition effect or overconfidence, this paper also focuses on the less intensively analysed behavioural inclinations, i.e. framing, illusion of the control, representativeness, sunk cost effect and fast thinking. The originality of this study further lies in the way the research was conducted through interviews with fund managers, who were found to be subject to behavioural biases, although those behavioural inclinations did not influence their investment decisions. This finding indicates that professionalism and collectivism in the group of institutional investors protect them from irrationality.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland

Wolski

Bolek²,

Gajdka³

et al. 2023

QRFM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…As evidenced by the Dincer-Eichengreen (Table 1) and CBT-IT (Table 2) transparency indices, the NBU's monetary policy is not sufficiently transparent (the progress is under consideration in Anufriieva and Shapoval, 2019). According to the Dincer-Eichengreen, the transparency index for the NBU scores at 12 out of 15 in 2021 (Table 1).…”

Section: Central Bank Transparencymeaning and Measurementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central Bank Communication Design: Towards Transparency of Monetary Policy

Shapoval

2021

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The object of the article is central bank communication design (particularly target audience, channels and instruments) and central banks’ transparency measurement. The purpose is to summarise the central bank communication policy's conceptual basics and clarify how transparent the NBU’s monetary policy is. Methodology. The paper applies the Dincer and Eichengreen (2014) and Al-Mashat et al. (2018) methods of transparency measurement, using the NBU’s published documents and website data as of 2021. Results. It has been emphasized that communication design should be based on central bank’s communication objectives, information demand from defined stakeholders and target groups, capabilities of application of channels and instruments. Ensuring confidence in monetary policy calls for simplified language and format that reflects the general public's interest. The shift to the growing role of the type of communication channel and interaction of central bank with the general public are marked out. The meaning of transparency, criteria, and indices (Eijffinger-Geraats, Dincer-Eichengreen, Crowe-Meade, Cournede-Minegishi, CBT-IT index) are under consideration. According to Dincer and Eichengreen, the NBU’s transparency index reaches almost a perfect score of 12 (out of 15), affirming NBU’s political and policy transparency improvements. The NBU’s CBT-IT transparency index scores 11.45 (out of 20), which points to the need to eliminate gaps of the FPAS designed to support full-fledged inflation- forecast-targeting (3.2 out of 9) in the light of improvements in the monetary policymaking process (5.75 out of 7) and transparency about monetary policy objectives (2.5 out of 3). Practical implications. The enhancement of the NBU’s transparency level reflects the development of its communication policy as transparency of monetary policy requires constant and coherent messages via diversified channels and instruments for a defined target audience, following a clear purpose of strategic communication. Value/originality. It has been highlighted that central bank communication design is the basis for financial market participants' trust, favouring monetary policy transparency.

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“…Also, 22% of the respondents said they had no bank accounts at all. This is explained by the fact that the change in trust in financial institutions is closely correlated with the uncertainty in the financial market (Anufriieva & Shapoval, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The level of financial inclusion in Ukraine: Measuring access, quality, and usage of financial products and services

Shapoval

Shkliar

Shpanel-Yukhta

et al. 2021

Banks and Bank Systems

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While financial inclusion is seen as a goal of socio-economic development, there is still no clear understanding of how to measure it. Following this concern, the paper deals with the computation of the financial inclusion index of the Ukrainian economy using an annual dataset spanning from 2008 to 2020 and following the Sarma methodology. The object of the study is a set of indicators of usage, access and quality of financial products and services. The obtained results demonstrate the medium level of financial inclusion. The improvement of financial inclusion is observed in 2012, 2013, 2020 (namely 0.55 – 0.56 in the range of 0 and 1). From 2015 (0.38) till 2018 (0.39), the revealed downward trend affirms that the withdrawal of banks from the market has deteriorated the level of quality and usage of financial products and services. Financial inclusion declined during the cleaning up of the banking system in 2014–2016, just as it did after the global financial crisis in 2009–2010. Despite the development of the payment infrastructure, there is a need to diversify access, increase quality, and quicken the usage of financial products and services due to existing distrust in national financial institutions. Improving financial literacy and consumer protection, and closing regulatory gaps in the non-banking sector are seen as ways to enhance financial inclusion. Thus, financial regulators should establish an upward trend in financial inclusion that will ensure full access to formal financial services and will not adversely affect the stability of financial system.

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Verbal interventions of the National Bank of Ukraine: The impact of exchange rate

Cited by 4 publications

References 6 publications

Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland

Do investment fund managers behave rationally in the light of central bank communication? Survey evidence from Poland

Central Bank Communication Design: Towards Transparency of Monetary Policy

The level of financial inclusion in Ukraine: Measuring access, quality, and usage of financial products and services

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