A two-dimensional photochemical model is used to examine changes to the ozone layer caused by emissions of CFC13, CF2C12, CH3CC13 and CCI,•. The influence of a possible secular increase in tropospheric methane up to 2% per year was found to be small, although it acts to mask decreases in total ozone caused by the chlorocarbons. Increasing NO,, emissions caused by industrialization also tend to mask decreases in total ozone and may have caused total ozone to increase by ~ 1%. The model calculated ozone decreases are estimated to be about 3% by 1980. This estimate is higher than estimates by similar models, although we note that CCI,• and CH3CC13 emissions are included in the model in addition to CFC13 and CF2C12. This is significant because the model indicates that CCI,• has dominated the ozone depletions so far, and knowledge of the historical emission rate of CCI,• to the atmosphere is incomplete. There remain sufficient significant disagreements between theoretical and observed concentrations and variabilities, particularly for odd nitrogen and C10, to caution against assigning too much confidence in the calculated ozone depletion. Wofsy and McElroy, 1974;Crutzen, 1974] after Molina and Rowland [1974] expressed concern that CI and CIO in the stratosphere would increase substantially when stable chlorine compounds in industrial use were transported upwar• to the stratosphere. Mainly above 30 km, these stable compounds are photodissociated to yield CI and CIO, which catalytically keep destroying ozone until they are converted to HCI by reaction with CH,•, H2, or HO2. As long as it remains in the stratosphere, most of the HCI is photochemically recycled to yield CI and CIO again. Only the transport of HC1 to the troposphere, where it is removed by rainout, can stop the active role of chlorine in the ozone chemistry and close the cycle that began with the release of a stable anthropogenic chlorine compound at the earth's surface.
INTRODUCTION
Interest was first focused on the catalytic role of CI and CIO in stratospheric ozone destruction [Stolarski and Cicerone
In addition to the globally averaged vertical distributions of the chlorocarbons and ozone depletions that can be obtained with one-dimensional models, it is important to know thelatitudinal and seasonal variations in order to assess the biological and climato!ogical impacts of chlorocarbon releases to the atmosphere. Among those identified by the National Academy of Sciences [1979] were an increase in the penetration of biologically damaging ultraviolet radiation, leading to increased skin cancer incidence in mankind; reduced crop yields; and killing of marine algae. Among the climatic effects identified were an average warming of the earth's surface by a few tenths of a degree Celsius and changes in the stratospheric temperature patterns, which in turn may affect the chemistry of all trace gases, including ozone. While the expected depletions in total ozone are presently believed to be small compared to the seasonal variations in total ozone, such small ...