“…The percent of oiled quadrats classified as HOR, MOR, LOR was 6, 41, and 53% in 2001, compared with 7, 20, and 73% in 2005, a change that was not statistically significant ( 2 ) 2.09, P ) 0.35, df ) 2). The apparent increases in oiled beach areas and masses between 2001 and 2005 reflect sampling error because no crude oil had been added to these beaches, and the high viscosity, high adhesion, and low concentration of the oil in these sediments preclude substantial diffusive spreading (10,21). For these reasons, we assumed that the actual proportion of beach area that is oiled, p, is constrained to decline monotonically with time.…”