Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

Abstract

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+−0.25). Comparison of model results with the “known population” of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+−0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+−0.15) and 0.77 (SE +−0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +−0.19 and 0.68, SE +−0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+−0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

A spotlight on snow leopard conservation in China

“…The exceptionally high and remote nature of its habitat combined with its ability to merge into the landscape and low population density have continued to challenge researchers. There is, nevertheless, a growing body of knowledge about the snow leopard, including its basic ecology, conflicts with humans and local community attitudes towards the species (Fox et al 1991;Ale et al 2014;Sharma et al 2014;Johansson et al 2015). Since the early of work of Schaller, Jackson and others (Schaller et al 1988a,b;Jackson 1996), international attention to and support for the snow leopard and its conservation needs have grown.…”

Health and zoonotic Infections of snow leopardsPanthera unicain the South Gobi desert of Mongolia

“…from 2012 to 2015 ( Figure 1). The Tost Mountains cover an area of approximately 1700 km 2 and the population of snow leopards, estimated annually, was between 10-14 adults during our study [24]. [26].…”

Defensible Inference: Questioning Global Trends in Tiger Populations

“…We believe the way forward is to shift the emphasis of monitoring from 4-year national estimates to annual or biennial, intensive site-level estimates based on consistent survey and analytical methods, and periodic meta-analysis of these data at relevant spatial scales. This shift will facilitate understanding of complex population dynamics that may underlie stable population sizes (Karanth et al 2006;Sharma et al 2014). A good example of a protocol for the implementation, meta-analysis, and reporting on the status and trend of multiple populations of an imperiled species has been developed and applied to the conservation of the Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) (e.g., Forsman et al 2011).…”

“…; Sharma et al . ). A good example of a protocol for the implementation, meta‐analysis, and reporting on the status and trend of multiple populations of an imperiled species has been developed and applied to the conservation of the Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis occidentalis ) (e.g., Forsman et al .…”