Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades

Abstract

In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

Coastal wetland adaptation to sea level rise: Quantifying potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze

“…These are estuaries where ecological impacts and transformations due to sea level rise are expected to be very large. Within each of these six estuaries, large areas of land will be affected by sea level rise as tidal saline wetlands migrate landward and replace upslope and upriver ecosystems (Doyle et al., ; Flower, Rains, & Fitz, ; Howard et al., ; Krauss, From, Doyle, Doyle, & Barry, ; Langston et al., ; Williams, Pinzon, et al., ). Hence, these are estuaries where there is much value in future‐focused and climate‐smart conservation planning efforts that promote landward migration and also manage habitats at risk of conversion to tidal saline wetlands.…”

“…Our regional-scale comparison identifies certain estuaries where the potential for landward migration and coastal squeeze are high (see colour intensity of estuaries in Figure 2, see isolated estuaries in Figures 3-6 and see low estuary ranks in Table 1). Those analyses indicate that the potential for landward migration of wetlands is very high in the following six estuaries: (1) (Doyle et al, 2010;Flower, Rains, & Fitz, 2017;Howard et al, 2017;Krauss, From, Doyle, Doyle, & Barry, 2011;Langston et al, 2017;Williams, Pinzon, et al, 1999). Hence, these are estuaries where there is much value in future-focused and climate-smart conservation planning efforts that promote landward migration and also manage habitats at risk of conversion to tidal saline wetlands.…”

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

“…In areas such as South Florida, the wider Caribbean and the India-Pacific mangrove region (Lovelock et al, 2015), however, mangroves cannot outpace current SLR rates, and are at risk of disappearing. These regional and local effects are highly variable (even contradictory between studies; e.g., Smoak et al, 2013;Koch et al, 2015) and are related to local conditions shaping vulnerability such as topography and controls over salinity from freshwater and inputs (Flower et al, 2017), but further research on the mass and surface energy balance is needed (Barr et al, 2013).…”

Customer priorities for water and wastewater services: a comparative evaluation of three elicitation methods

“…Even the most cursory browse through the academic literature reveals an often confusing array of engagement methods ranging from what might be termed traditional forms such as surveys and focus groups to more innovative approaches such as consensus conferences (Phadke et a l ., 2015) and visioning (Flower et al ., 2017). The use of such a copious number of methods might be put down to a number of reasons (Rowe and Frewer, 2005).…”