Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Qiu, Richard T.R.; Wu, Doris Chenguang; Dropsy, Vincent; Petit, Sylvain; Pratt, Stephen; Ohe, Yasuo

doi:10.1016/j.annals.2021.103155

Cited by 83 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…SARIMAX, ETSX, STLX, and CBX, have been identified as the best model for 10, 17, 13 and 14 times, respectively, in different measures and horizons. This observation coincides with the argument that no single model can be regarded as superior for all markets and all times (Song and Li, 2008;Song et al, 2019;Qiu et al, 2021). For upscale, upper midscale and midscale hotels, the superiority of intervention models is less obvious.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

Timing matters: crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

Qiu

Liu

Stienmetz

et al. 2021

IJCHM

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Purpose The impact of demand fluctuation during crisis events is crucial to the dynamic pricing and revenue management tactics of the hospitality industry. The purpose of this paper is to improve the accuracy of hotel demand forecast during periods of crisis or volatility, taking the 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong as an example. Design/methodology/approach Crisis severity, approximated by social media data, is combined with traditional time-series models, including SARIMA, ETS and STL models. Models with and without the crisis severity intervention are evaluated to determine under which conditions a crisis severity measurement improves hotel demand forecasting accuracy. Findings Crisis severity is found to be an effective tool to improve the forecasting accuracy of hotel demand during crisis. When the market is volatile, the model with the severity measurement is more effective to reduce the forecasting error. When the time of the crisis lasts long enough for the time series model to capture the change, the performance of traditional time series model is much improved. The finding of this research is that the incorporating social media data does not universally improve the forecast accuracy. Hotels should select forecasting models accordingly during crises. Originality/value The originalities of the study are as follows. First, this is the first study to forecast hotel demand during a crisis which has valuable implications for the hospitality industry. Second, this is also the first attempt to introduce a crisis severity measurement, approximated by social media coverage, into the hotel demand forecasting practice thereby extending the application of big data in the hospitality literature.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 85%

Timing matters: crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

Qiu

Liu

Stienmetz

et al. 2021

IJCHM

Self Cite

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“…COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the tourism economies of almost every country across the world, and this is highlighted in the studies of researchers who have focused on the economic impact of the first wave of the pandemic, in particular on employment (Pharm et al, 2021 Pharm et al, 2021 ) and lockdown strategy impact on the revival of the tourism economy ( McCarteny et al, 2021 ). While studies have found the individuals willingness to pay is high to maintain public health and reduce the risk of the tourism sector ( Qiu et al, 2021b , Qiu et al, 2021a ), others recommend government support for the recovery of tourism and hospitality sector ( Phan et al, 2021 ). The revival of tourism economies are also analysed using diverse economic frameworks ( Cave & Dredge, 2020 ; Ibin et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While Kourentzes et al (2021) , using the time series forecasting method, have estimated the international tourist arrivals for 20 destinations, Liu et al (2021) , using scenario-based two-steps mixed method including time series analysis, Artificial intelligence and judgmental forecasting, estimate tourist arrivals across 20 countries to suggest that strong relationship between the speed and intensity of recovery and destinations dependency on long-haul markets. Qiu et al, 2021 Qiu et al, 2021b , Qiu et al, 2021a , using statistical and judgemental forecasting methods, estimates tourist arrivals across 20 Asia Pacific countries. Wickramasinghe and Ratnasiri (2020) , using monthly data on tourist arrivals and google trends, estimate the foregone tourist expenditure for Srilanka.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present and prospective research themes for tourism and hospitality education post-COVID19: A bibliometric analysis

Menon

Gunasekar

Dixit

et al. 2022

Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism Education

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“…They suggest that the recovery will be quicker for intraregional travel than for the interregional one. Qiu, Wu, Dropsy, et al (2021) forecast travel demand across 20 countries (encompassing the same 5 European regions studied by Liu et al, 2021) by means of a two-stage (ex post and ex ante) forecast. They suggest three scenarios, depending on the starting date of the recovery and its length.…”

Section: Annals Of Tourism Research (H-index 171) Offers Eight Papers Dealing Withmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 Outbreak in Europe and Its Impact Across Four Different Sectors: Analytical Research

Staboulis

Lazaridou

2021

JEE

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This paper discusses the economic features of the current Covid-19 outbreak and its relation to labour markets and new skills in demand. At the same time, it focuses on how it started to expand worldwide, while reporting the ways of transmission and their effects on daily social and professional life. It is argued that focusing on skills and human capital could offer a strong foundation for building sustainable economies, as the recent months have been a suitable period to progress and advance digital skills, thus reducing digital illiteracy, while at the same time developing certain major sectors such as online education, ecommerce, telemedicine, entertainment, digital collaboration tools, virtual reality applications, etc. The author mainly focuses on the analysis of the recent global trends in many affected sectors, examines possible unemployment issues with an emphasis on the kind of new skills and soft skills in demand that are necessary for an easier transition to the new Covid-19 way of life.

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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Cited by 83 publications

References 19 publications

Timing matters: crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

Timing matters: crisis severity and occupancy rate forecasts in social unrest periods

Present and prospective research themes for tourism and hospitality education post-COVID19: A bibliometric analysis

Covid-19 Outbreak in Europe and Its Impact Across Four Different Sectors: Analytical Research

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