2008
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-8-927-2008
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Volcanic ash forecast – application to the May 2008 Chaitén eruption

Abstract: Abstract.We model the transport and subsequent deposition of ash from Chaitén volcano, Chile, during the first week of May 2008. The simulation couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model with the FALL3D dispersion model. We only use semi-quantitative volcanological inputs based on the first eruption reports. We consider two different run types based on forecasted and hindcasted meteorological conditions. The first simulation type can be regarded as a syn-eruptive operational foreca… Show more

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Cited by 60 publications
(75 citation statements)
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“…Martin-Del Pozzo et al, 2008] an assigned thickness of <0.1 mm where ash was detectable only as a pale dusting on stiff leaves. Both local people's estimates of fresh ashfall thickness, and that estimated from coupled meteorological and dispersal models [Folch et al, 2008], correspond well with our data. In some cases a discrepancy exists, with our measurements being slightly lower than fresh thickness estimates.…”
Section: Ash Samplingsupporting
confidence: 75%
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“…Martin-Del Pozzo et al, 2008] an assigned thickness of <0.1 mm where ash was detectable only as a pale dusting on stiff leaves. Both local people's estimates of fresh ashfall thickness, and that estimated from coupled meteorological and dispersal models [Folch et al, 2008], correspond well with our data. In some cases a discrepancy exists, with our measurements being slightly lower than fresh thickness estimates.…”
Section: Ash Samplingsupporting
confidence: 75%
“…The relative intensity of these episodes is unclear, but the 8 May cloud may have drifted northward in mid-Argentina ( Figure 1b) [Folch et al, 2008] rather than following the easterly direction of the 6 May. For simplicity, we refer to this northern depositional lobe as the 6 May deposit.…”
Section: Eruption Volumesmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…On 6 May, the intensity of explosive activity increased sharply leading to a climactic explosion (Fig. 3b) that lofted an eruption column to at least 18-20 km altitude (Folch et al, 2008;Carn et al, 2009;Durant et al, 2012). During the day, explosive activity waxed and waned.…”
Section: Explosive Phasementioning
confidence: 99%
“…It is also noteworthy that some of the most calamitous eruptions in the past two centuries, e.g., the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Philippines), 1902 eruption of Santa Maria (Guatemala), and 1815 eruption of Tambora (Indonesia), have been from volcanoes with no previously known historical activity (Simkin and Siebert, 1994). From the viewpoint of the duration of dormancy, the most notable cases are the cataclysmic eruptions of Usu (Japan) in 1663 and Chaitén (Chile) in 2008, which occurred after ~ 7000 years and ~ 9300 years of dormancy, respectively (Soya et al, 1981;Folch et al, 2008). Therefore, the long (~ 7000 years) dormancy from the latest recognized NYT eruption cannot be considered as an indication that Nantai volcano is extinct.…”
Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning
confidence: 99%