Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015

Abstract

Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market-the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.

Renewable Energy Requirements for Future Building Codes: Options for Compliance

“…For instance, the number of states with Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) has more than doubled since the report was released, and the compliance market estimates are based on RPS requirements. Also, as previously stated, voluntary markets in 2015 could include 63-157 million MWh based on more recently analyzed low-growth and high-growth forecasts, respectively (Bird et al 2010). This also shows a large increase from the 2005 estimates.…”