Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

McGregor, R. Michael

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2012.07.002

Cited by 24 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…11 The relationship between the time of vote decision and undecided voters is mentioned already in some classic contributions such as Lazarsfeld et al (1948) and Bereleson et al (1954). More recent literature on the same topic are Chaffe and Choe (1980), Chaffe and Rimal (1996) and McGregor (2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

The role of the political context in voting indecision

Orriols¹,

Martínez²

2014

Electoral Studies

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Article available under the terms of the CC-BY-NC-ND licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) eprints@whiterose.ac.uk https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/ Reuse Unless indicated otherwise, fulltext items are protected by copyright with all rights reserved. The copyright exception in section 29 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 allows the making of a single copy solely for the purpose of non-commercial research or private study within the limits of fair dealing. The publisher or other rights-holder may allow further reproduction and re-use of this version -refer to the White Rose Research Online record for this item. Where records identify the publisher as the copyright holder, users can verify any specific terms of use on the publisher's website. TakedownIf you consider content in White Rose Research Online to be in breach of UK law, please notify us by emailing eprints@whiterose.ac.uk including the URL of the record and the reason for the withdrawal request. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. Accepted Manuscript M A N U S C R I P T A C C E P T E D ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT HighlightsWe examine how context affects voters cognitive and social costs of declaring their vote intentionTo study it we pool all pre-electoral surveys in Spain since 1980 (135 context-level observations)Our results show that the number of parties and the electoral competitiveness increase voting indecisionResults also show that government s reputation influence indecision among incumbent partisans *Highlights (for review) M A N U S C R I P T A C C E P T E D ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT The role of the political context in voting indecisionA substantive portion of the electorate declares in pre-electoral surveys that they are undecided.However, little has been done in trying to understand who these voters are and how they finally decide their vote. In this article, we try to advance the literature by disentangling the circumstances under which voters are more likely to be undecided. While the traditional approach to the study of electoral indecision has been to characterize which individual traits make voters more likely to be undecided, this article provides consistent evidence showing that key elements of the political context may also affect electoral indecision. Using long-term harmonized data from Spanish pre-electoral surveys over thirty years, we find that voting indecision is influenced by two different types of contextual factors. First, there are some political contexts that reduce voters' cognitive costs when deciding their vote i.e. the level of electoral competitiveness and the number of par...

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confidence: 99%

The role of the political context in voting indecision

Orriols¹,

Martínez²

2014

Electoral Studies

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“…Par exemple, suite à une étude de cas effectuée au Canada, et menée par McGregor (2012), il a été montré que les électeurs sincères ont toujours tendance à prendre une décision de voter relativement tard.…”

Section: Prise De Décision éLectorale : Les Facteurs Humainsunclassified

Architecture dun système dinformation décisionnel orientée vers le processus électoral

Taher¹

2014

JISTEM

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The election decision-making process is very complex, whether to voters or to political parties. The integration of business intelligence into this process may become one of the key elements that support and improve the election decision-making process. This research paid special attention to the integration of business intelligence into such a process. It is inspired by the IMC model and based on cloud computing. This structural concept offers a definition to the four important levels of decision. These levels take into account the maximum number of factors that may influence the success of an election process.Keywords: Business Intelligence System, election process, Cloud RESUMÉELe processus de prise de décision électorale est un processus complexe. Que ce soit pour les électeurs, ou bien pour les partis politiques. L'intégration de l'informatique décisionnelle dans ce processus peut devenir une des clés importantes, qui peut offrir un appui et apporter une amélioration dans les prises de décisions électorales. La présente investigation a porté une attention particulière sur l'intégration de l'informatique décisionnelle dans le processus électoral, en s'inspirant du modèle IMC, et sur la base de l'informatique nuageuse. La présente conception architecturale propose la définition de quatre importants niveaux décisionnels. Ces niveaux prennent en compte le maximum de facteurs qui peuvent influencer la réussite du processus décisionnel électoral.

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“…Being aware of the relative competitive position of each party, strategic voters acknowledge that their favourite party has little (or no) chance of success. Since they want to avoid wasting their votes, they refrain to vote for that party and decide to cast a ballot for a less preferred party that seems to be the most capable of defeating their least preferred party option (Blais et al, 2001;McGregor, 2012). There are two main types of tactical voting:…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Strategic voting is a first factor that is thought to induce instability in voters' party preferences (Bartolini & Mair, 1990;Bischoff, 2013;McGregor, 2012). Before dealing with the relationship between tactical voting and electoral volatility, it is necessary to define the concept of strategic voting.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign? An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections

Willocq¹

2016

OJPS

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This article examines the causes of stability and change in vote intentions during the 2014 Belgian federal election campaign. Drawing on data from the 2014 Parti Rep Belgian Voter Survey, our study aims to explain why a large number of voters have switched their vote intention in the weeks preceding the federal elections. To this end, we test a series of hypotheses drawn from different theories often referred to in the literature to account for campaign volatility. The results of our analysis reveal that voters can decide to change their vote preferences during the campaign due to strategic considerations related to their perceptions of the coalition potentials of parties. We also find that voters with a low level of political interest are more likely than highly interested voters to switch from one party to another in the weeks preceding the electoral contest. Unsurprisingly, a high degree of affection for the favourite party proves to be a barrier against campaign volatility. The higher the level of affect directed to the most preferred party, the more stable will be the vote intention. Moreover, results show that citizens with a low level of external political efficacy are more prone than others to switch parties in the last weeks of the campaign. By contrast, the ideological profile of the voter has no significant impact on campaign volatility.

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Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

Cited by 24 publications

References 37 publications

The role of the political context in voting indecision

The role of the political context in voting indecision

Architecture dun système dinformation décisionnel orientée vers le processus électoral

Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign? An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections

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Voter sincerity and the time-of-voting-decision

Cited by 24 publications

References 37 publications

The role of the political context in voting indecision

The role of the political context in voting indecision

Architecture dun système dinformation décisionnel orientée vers le processus électoral

Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign? An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian Federal Elections

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Architecture dun système dinformation décisionnel orientée vers le processus électoral