Voting in Nigeria: Determinants of Turnout in the 2015 Presidential Election

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of voter turnout in the 2015 election in Nigeria. Variables drawn from political participation models were tested on the likelihood that they influence turnout. The paper finds that political trust and home ownership had a significant impact on participation more than other factors. However, it did not underestimate the influence socio-economic variables can have on voter turnout especially how they can sway the effect of political trust on individuals’ decision to turnout.

COVID-19 pandemic and political participation in Lagos, Nigeria

“…What constitutes political participation is varied, but voter turnout is the primary way citizens participate in politics. Several theories abound, but the rational choice model, political efficacy model, and socio-economic model are the primary lens through which political participation is explored (Nwankwo and Okafor 2017 ). In a rational choice context, people select outcomes with better efficiency over results with reduced benefit and choose to engage in actions that produce more greatly priced endings (Aldrich 1993 ).…”

“…In a rational choice context, people select outcomes with better efficiency over results with reduced benefit and choose to engage in actions that produce more greatly priced endings (Aldrich 1993 ). Thus, rational voters gauge the prices and gains of voting, and if the prices surpass the gains, you can anticipate abstention or otherwise if the reverse is the case (Downs 1957 ; Aldrich 1993 ; Franklin 2004 ; Nwankwo and Okafor 2017 ). Thus, we will anticipate that people who consider contracting or spreading COVID-19 have far lesser consequences than voting will likely turnout more during the pandemic.…”

“…The steadiest conclusions from these factors are the connection between political trust and electoral politics participation (Hooghe and Marien 2013 ). Studies exploring factors of voter turnout in Africa and indeed in Nigeria have noted that political trust is an essential factor determining political participation (Kuenzi and Lambright 2007 , 2011 ; Nwankwo and Okafor 2017 ; Nwankwo 2019 ). Political trust also boosts the acceptance of government policies and actions in the fight against COVID-19 in Nigeria (Ezeibe et al 2020 ).…”

“…This claim has been supported by prominent studies on political participation in Western democracies (Verba and Nie 1972 ; Wolfinger and Rosenstone 1980 ; Leighley and Nagler 1992 ) and continues to be found in newer studies (Blais 2000 ; Carreras and İrepoğlu 2013 ). Some findings in Africa have endorsed this idea of the SES paradigm of voting (e.g., Amoateng, Kalule-Sabiti and Heaton 2014 ; Larreguy and Marshall 2017 ) but refuted by others (e.g., Kuenzi and Lambright 2007 ; 2011 ; Isaksson 2014 ; Nwankwo and Okafor 2017 ).…”

“…Examining the determinants of voter turnout in Nigeria is pertinent because even though Nigeria is Africa's largest democracy (Nwankwo 2018 ), it has witnessed a consistent decline in voter turnout since 2003 (Nwankwo 2019 ). Since the "rule by the people" is the fundamental principle of democracy, it thus makes sense that higher levels of voter turnout confer legitimacy on the election and hence a measure of a democracy's performance (Nwankwo and Okafor 2017 ; Kuenzi and Lambright 2007 ).…”