Vulnerability Assessment Models to Drought: Toward a Conceptual Framework

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Passel, Steven Van

doi:10.3390/su8060588

Cited by 67 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Like vulnerability, drought has both a natural and social component, i.e., the risk associated with drought is a product of both the region's exposure to the drought, as well as the resilience of the ecosystem or adaptive capacity of that region [52]. Impacts also differ spatially and temporally, as well as depending on the type of drought.…”

Section: Influence Of Different Components Of Vulnerability On the Ovmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2017

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Abstract:The rural population in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH), which constitutes more than half of the total population, experienced serious incidences of extreme weather events in the past two decades. This part of the population is vulnerable to climate change due to significant dependence on agriculture as a climate-sensitive livelihood option. However, the source of their vulnerability is due not only to the extent and magnitude of these extreme climate events, but also to the internal status within the vulnerable systems before the occurrence of such events. In order to explore the different dimensions of vulnerability, we used a set of 20 indicators to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of the rural population to climate change at the local level in BH. Two summarizing and two weighting methods were applied to assess vulnerability-Equal weights (EW) and principal component analysis (PCA). Based on the results obtained, we concluded that the current socio-economic conditions and the increased environmental pressure as a result of the present human-environment interactions are the main determinants of vulnerability in most vulnerable municipalities, rather than the degree to which these municipalities are exposed to significant climatic variations. Most vulnerable municipalities are located across the north, with a gradual decrease in vulnerability towards the central, north, and east of the country. Vulnerability increases again from here towards the south of the country. The number of municipalities classified as the highest and highly vulnerable increased when the second summarizing method and weighted indicators were used. However, the general geographic distribution of vulnerability did not change substantially compared to the first method. The approaches used in this study provide some valuable results at the local level, and are presented in a way that is practical for decision-making processes and may serve as a base for further research when designing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, especially in the regions with similar climatic and socio-economic conditions.

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Section: Influence Of Different Components Of Vulnerability On the Ovmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

2017

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“…Likewise, Carrão et al [33], in a global mapping of drought risk, understand drought vulnerability as "a reflection of the state of the individual and collective social, economic and infrastructural factors of a region at hand". In some way or another, the contextual framework has prevailed in studies of drought vulnerability, from the early work of Keenan and Krannich [34] and Wilhelmi and Wilhite [35] to more recent ones carried out by Naumann et al [31] and Carrão et al [33], as corroborated by Zarafshani et al [16] in their latest review of the topic. This fact reveals that the use of integral frameworks such as the one adopted in this study has been practically non-existent in the discussion and proposals aimed at the construction of standard approaches for drought vulnerability assessment [6].…”

Section: The Epistemic Divorcementioning

confidence: 62%

“…Thus, robust but especially objective vulnerability measures are probably one of the main and most urgent goals in order to make drought vulnerability assessment progress and, in terms of Beccari [48], develop it into a more mature state. The lack of reconciliation between the two main frameworks of vulnerability assessment has led to recent studies that attempt to overcome this limitation from a more integrated (holistic, synthetic, hybrid, top-down/bottom-up) perspective [12,16,20,21]. Thus, integrated alternatives such as the Hazard-of-Place model [49], the Double Exposure Framework [50] and the Coupled Vulnerability Framework [12] have emerged.…”

Section: The Indicator-based Approach For Vulnerability Quantificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the conceptual framework in this field has incorporated new theoretical frameworks in recent decades [11][12][13][14][15][16], it is possible to highlight two main paradigms that have defined the way in which academia has conceptualized and operationalized vulnerability [15,[17][18][19]: the contextual framework (also known as start-point vulnerability) and the outcome framework (also known as end-point vulnerability). In the former case, vulnerability is conceptualized around intrinsic factors-or characteristics-of the impacted system and is operationalized, broadly, in terms of so-called composite indicators [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Implicitly, the scope under this conceptual framework is to answer who is vulnerable, why and what factors should be integrated [16,21].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Reconciling Drought Vulnerability Assessment Using a Convergent Approach: Application to Water Security in the Elqui River Basin, North-Central Chile

Núñez

Vergara

Leyton

et al. 2017

Water

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Drought has been, is and most likely will remain one of the most significant socio-natural disasters affecting society and the environment worldwide. One priority objective in the adoption of national drought policies is to promote standardized approaches to vulnerability assessment. To reach this objective, however, there is a need to address the noticeable lack of reconciliation between the two major epistemic frameworks that have been used to determine who is vulnerable and why: the so-called outcome and contextual frameworks. This study presents a novel procedure called the convergent approach to assess drought vulnerability under an integral framework. The procedure has been applied to the study of the vulnerability of water security to drought in water-use sectors in a basin located in north-central Chile. The study is justified by the role that drought plays as the major threat to water security in a context of global water crisis. The results show that the convergent approach outperforms traditional procedures such as those based on composite indicators, showing sound robustness and reaching sufficient levels of reliability and validity. The potential expansion of this approach to other applications, such as those related to global estimations of vulnerability to drought, is also discussed.

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Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

Spinoni

Barbosa

Bucchignani

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21 st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5° to 4°C).Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, i.e. more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought.For SSP5 (fossil-fueled development) at GWL 4°C, approximately 2•10 6 km 2 of forests and croplands (respectively 6% and 11%) and 1.5•10 6 km 2 of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17•10 6 km 2 of forests (49%), 6•10 6 km 2 of pastures (78%), and 12•10 6 km 2 of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.

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Vulnerability Assessment Models to Drought: Toward a Conceptual Framework

Cited by 67 publications

References 56 publications

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Quantitative Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Municipalities of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Reconciling Drought Vulnerability Assessment Using a Convergent Approach: Application to Water Security in the Elqui River Basin, North-Central Chile

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: A CORDEX‐based study

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