Vulnerability of coastal Connecticut to sea level rise: land inundation and impacts to residential property

Abstract

Following an increase in large storm events, coastal communities have begun developing vulnerability assessments to prepare for future natural disasters and to provide a step towards the eventual development of resilience management plans. The goal of this study was to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities in the state of Connecticut to the impacts of sea level rise together with an analysis of the extent of inundated land and the economic impacts of such environmental phenomenon. Societal impacts as well as impacts on critical infrastructure were also investigated. The scope of the study focused on precision at the local level rather than regional generalizations. Impacts have been assessed at the municipality level, parcel by parcel. The shoreline of New Haven County, which was analyzed in this study, consists of seven municipalities located in the south central region of the state of Connecticut, in the U.S. The study analyzed impacts for 1 m and 2 m sea level rise scenarios. Land inundation was calculated as 15 km 2 and 25 km 2 for the two scenarios. The direct economic cost through residential property losses in the seven municipalities analyzed was estimated to be $1.3 billion and $2.2 billion due to land inundation and flooding, for 1 m and 2 m sea level rise scenarios, respectively. The estimated economic impacts to residential property is significant when 2 considering that only seven municipalities stretching 94 km of coastline were analyzed in the study. The overall weighted average was $15 million/km coastline and $24 million/km coastline for 1 m and 2 m sea level rise, respectively. These values do not take into account increased flood risk during storm events, which are expected to increase in frequency and severity, and therefore may be considered to be conservative. Effects of sea level rise would be felt at the local level, which is unique for every location, and so should be the potential solutions. A variety of strategies have been identified that could be applied to the municipalities analyzed, including implementing green infrastructure in the form of restoring wetlands and creating living shorelines, adjusting building codes and zoning ordinances, and reinforcing existing infrastructure.

Estimating the Potential Risks of Sea Level Rise for Public and Private Property Ownership, Occupation and Management

“…Recent websites like CoastalRisk (www.coastalrisk.com.au) provide the ability for anyone to examine, using a GIS map, the potential for inundation of up to 10 m. However, more property-specific information is required by stakeholders regarding factors that might contribute to current and future risks. An examination of the broader implications of SLR, as demonstrated by Andreucci and Aktas (2017) and Withey et al (2016), illustrates how these factors relate to direct and indirect risks to property.…”

Coastal Dam Inundation Assessment for the Yellow River Delta: Measurements, Analysis and Scenario

“…Figure 3 shows the destruction of Gudong Dam by Super Typhoon Lekima in August 2019. The government invests heavily in flood prevention every year [18][19][20][21], especially within the coastal zone. Therefore, inundation assessment is an important activity in terms of flood control and can aid policy makers in their formulation of reasonable measures to minimize economic losses [20,22].…”

“…The government invests heavily in flood prevention every year [18][19][20][21], especially within the coastal zone. Therefore, inundation assessment is an important activity in terms of flood control and can aid policy makers in their formulation of reasonable measures to minimize economic losses [20,22]. In terms of geological conditions, Gudong oilfield located in the northeast of Zhanhua Sag at the Jiyang Depression, and at the southern end of the drape structure of Zhuangxi-Gudong's buried mountain drape structural belt [5][6][7][8].…”

“…The government invests heavily in flood prevention every year [18][19][20][21], especially within the coastal zone. Therefore, inundation assessment is an important activity in terms of flood control and can aid policy makers in their formulation of reasonable measures to minimize economic losses [20,22]. As a result of the overwhelming damage caused by inundation, many studies related to inundation assessment of coastal areas exist [23][24][25].…”

“…In the field of inundation assessment, sea-level change is one of the most frequently considered factors. A number of studies focus on the submerged range [52], economic losses [18,20,33] or destruction of the natural environment [3,22] caused by sea-level rise (SLR). The rising sea-level could flood coastal lowlands of China, such as the Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River delta, and the Pearl River delta, which are the most economically and socially developed regions.…”