Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies

Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, B.

doi:10.1002/jsfa.7659

Cited by 23 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The method used in study enables the evaluation of impact potential without having to continually re-run transfer functions. Non-climate experts such as planners and other decision makers can use the schemes to assess and re-assess impact according to their expectation of climate change or variability and review the relative merits of various response and/or adjustment strategies [13,38]. As there are no comparable studies in the literature on similar climatic regions and at equivalent latitudes, further research may produce results on which comparisons can be valuably made.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this manner, a range of planning decisions (adaptations) might be usefully considered without knowing precisely the change that will occur [9]. Regions that are more or less sensitive to change may be identified, and appropriate plans or adjustments may be made either to take advantage of beneficial effects or to reduce the undesirable consequences of a potential change [10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The international research community is largely focused on the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of economy, as it is closely linked to the food security of the population [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Forecasts of future climate are required for effective decision making by those involved in agriculture, but such forecasts are accompanied by uncertainties that are likely to continue into the future [11,21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forecasts of future climate are required for effective decision making by those involved in agriculture, but such forecasts are accompanied by uncertainties that are likely to continue into the future [11,21]. These decision makers need to work towards adjustment strategies to mitigate impacts or to take advantage of changed opportunities [13,22,23]. This requires knowledge of the future climate as well as methods capable of transforming the knowledge into likely agricultural effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sensitivity assessment approach is one of the most useful methods [12], addressing the difficulty of uncertain future climate by identifying regions of high vulnerability to climate change. In agriculture, for example, different climates can be portrayed and appraised on the basis of this sensitivity, since a particular change affects some climatic types more than others [8,13,24,25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Grigorieva

2020

Atmosphere

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Climate is a key factor in agriculture, but we are unable to adequately predict future climates. Although some studies have addressed the short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture, few of them specifically focused on the analysis of its thermal component. Climatic regions with an extreme thermal range are a special case, as seasonal contrasts complicate the picture. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. First, we review methods and indices used for the estimation of changes in the thermal component of the climate and demonstrate the usefulness of a sensitivity assessment methodology that gives some indication of the likely spatial extent of areas of high or low sensitivity to climate change and the size of the potential impact of that change, which is specifically beneficial in regions with high temperature extremes. Secondly, we constructed a composite indicator, called the Growing Degree Day Sensitivity Index (GDDSI) and defined as the percentage change in Growing Degree Day (GDD) for warming scenarios +1, +2 and +3 °C. GDDs were calculated for threshold base air temperatures of 0, 5, 10 and 15 °C, and a high-temperature limit of 30 °C. A GDD sensitivity analysis was applied to the thermally extreme climate of the Russian Far East. We analyzed the data of 50 weather stations across the study region over the period 1966–2017. The results show a strong GDDSI north-to-south gradient. In most cases, the sensitivity does not increase significantly as the warming rate increases. The higher the base threshold, the higher the sensitivity: GDDs with a threshold at 15 °C had the highest sensitivity in the far north of the study area where conditions are currently marginal for crop growth. The sensitivity analysis circumnavigates the difficulty of uncertainty in knowing what future climate to expect and informs planning decisions. The mapped results are useful for identifying areas of high sensitivity to climate change as well as the magnitude of the potential impact of that change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Grigorieva

2020

Atmosphere

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Crop Management of Winter Wheat and Maize in the Semi‐arid Region of Iran

Khordadi

Olesen

Alizadeh

et al. 2019

Irrigation and Drainage

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Climate change is expected to lead to declining crop yields in semi‐arid regions due to higher temperatures and more severe droughts, which calls for adaptations in crop management. We used the WOFOST and AquaCrop crop simulation models to examine the response of crop yield in winter wheat and maize to a set of climate change scenarios up to 2040 in the semi‐arid climate of Mashhad in north‐east Iran. Modelled climate change from six AOGCMs including GFCM21, HADCM3, INCM3, IPCM4, MPEH5 and NCCCSM under IPCC SRES A2 and B1 emission scenarios was used. The crop models were calibrated and validated against 7 years of observed crop yield data, confirming that the models adequately simulated yields of wheat and maize in the study area. The bootstrap method was used to estimate the uncertainty of crop yield projections. The results showed a mean yield decrease of 10–34% for winter wheat and 8–18% for maize, depending on the crop model and climate change scenario. The period of flowering to maturity of winter wheat and maize would be shortened on average by 9 and 5 days, respectively. Changes in crop management were considered for adaptation to climate change. Simulation results indicated that early sowing of winter wheat and late sowing of maize enhanced yield and water productivity across all climate change scenarios and that late‐maturity cultivars of winter wheat and early‐maturity hybrids of maize generally have higher productivity than standard cultivars. Increasing heat tolerance of the crops and changing irrigation management of winter wheat were also found to be beneficial adaptation options. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The optimization of wheat yield through adaptive crop management in a changing climate: evidence from China

Liu

Zhang

2020

J Sci Food Agric

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BACKGROUND Adaptive crop management is critical to food security in a changing climate, but the respective contributions of climate change and crop management to yields remain unclear. Thus, we distinguished and quantified the respective contribution of climate change and crop management on wheat yield between 1981 and 2018 in China, using first‐difference multivariate regression model. RESULTS Wheat production in China has increased over the past four decades. Under the sole impact of climate change, wheat yield generally decreased (−5.45 to +1.09% decade−1). Crop management increased the wheat yield from 7.11 to 19.94% decade−1. Sensitivities of wheat yield to climatic variables (average temperature, accumulated sunshine hours, accumulated precipitation) were spatially heterogeneous; notably, in spring‐wheat planting areas, wheat yield was more susceptible to the negative impact of warming. In terms of relative contribution, the contribution of climate change to spring wheat yield was −24.08% to −5.41%, and the contribution to winter wheat was −4.98% to +34.69%. Crop management had a positive contribution to all wheat‐growing areas (65.31–96.84%). CONCLUSION Crop management had a greater effect on wheat yield than climate change did. Among the three climatic variables investigated, average temperature had the dominant effect on wheat yield change; the impact of precipitation was minimal but mostly negative. The results provide insight regarding the contribution of climate change and crop management to wheat yield; adaptation measures may be more effective in planting areas where crop management contributes more, which will help stakeholders optimize crop management and adaptation strategies. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry

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Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies

Abstract: This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Cited by 23 publications

References 33 publications

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Growing Degree Days as an Agro-Climatic Indicator of the Climate Change Impact: A Case Study of the Russian Far East

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Crop Management of Winter Wheat and Maize in the Semi‐arid Region of Iran

The optimization of wheat yield through adaptive crop management in a changing climate: evidence from China

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