Vulnerability of Maize Yields to Droughts in Uganda

Abstract

Climate projections in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) forecast an increase in the intensity and frequency of droughts with implications for maize production. While studies have examined how maize might be affected at the continental level, there have been few national or sub-national studies of vulnerability. We develop a vulnerability index that combines sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity and that integrates agroecological, climatic and socio-economic variables to evaluate the national and spatial pattern of maize yield vulnerability to droughts in Uganda. The results show that maize yields in the north of Uganda are more vulnerable to droughts than in the south and nationally. Adaptive capacity is higher in the south of the country than in the north. Maize yields also record higher levels of sensitivity and exposure in the north of Uganda than in the south. Latitudinally, it is observed that maize yields in Uganda tend to record higher levels of vulnerability, exposure and sensitivity towards higher latitudes, while in contrast, the adaptive capacity of maize yields is higher towards the lower latitudes. In addition to lower precipitation levels in the north of the country, these observations can also be explained by poor soil quality in most of the north and socio-economic proxies, such as, higher poverty and lower literacy rates in the north of Uganda.

Perceptions and Response Actions of Smallholder Coffee Farmers to Climate Variability in Montane Ecosystems

“…Adaptation to climate change and climate variability is a strategy that has been embraced by different communities to minimize the effect on human and natural systems [1]. Adaptation is a continuous stream of activities, actions, decisions and attitudes that informs decisions and reflects the current social norm and processes [24].…”

“…Elgon as perceived through the increase in temperature, prolonged rainy season, winds and droughts [11]. Changes in weather patterns that affect crop production and changes in water availability are affecting vulnerable people thereby limiting their means of livelihood, since most of them are physically destructive [1,28,29]. Climate variability in Kaato sub-county is generally perceived by farmers to manifest in increased rainfall seasons.…”

“…Agriculture employs about 73% of Uganda's population and contributes approximately 20% to the Gross Domestic Product, translating into 43% of the export earnings [1]. With about 4 million people, majority of whom are rural based and directly deriving their livelihoods from smallholder agriculture for their livelihoods, it is prudent that Uganda's highly climate-sensitive agricultural sector is proofed as the country pursues her vision of achieving a transformed society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years [2].…”

“…The warming trend affects the process of photosynthesis and respiration, infestations of weeds, insects and diseases and the thermal and hydrological regimes that govern agricultural systems and this affects food production directly due to changed agro-ecological conditions [7]. There is evidence of changing trends in agro-climatic indices [5,8] especially those directly related to temperature like increases in length of the growing season [1,9].…”

“…Climate variability is already negatively impacting smallholder farmers, notably the decline in crop yields and in more severe cases, complete crop failure [1,10], with the most vulnerable being rain-fed crop systems [11]. Adaptation of such systems therefore presents an urgent need if the tenets of Uganda's Vison 2040 are to be achieved.…”