Vulnerability of pastoral farming in Hawke's Bay to future climate change: Development of a pre‐screening (bottom‐up) methodology

Abstract

Although future climate change will significantly affect New Zealand's climate, how regional climates will be changed remains highly uncertain. As a consequence, pre-screening sensitivity analysis is recommended for climate-sensitive activities. A 'bottom-up' approach intended to serve this purpose in the context of non-irrigated pasture is developed and demonstrated in the Hawke's Bay context. This is achieved using a simple daily water balance model to simulate near-surface hydrological processes and empirical relationships between transpiration and pasture dry matter production. The Hawke's Bay case study indicates that the methodology has merit and is worthwhile pursuing nationally (with refinements).

Freshwater geographies: Prospects for an engaged institutional project?

“…) to examining the implications of forestry practices on sediment yields (Marden ) to developing climate change adaptation strategies (Fowler et al . ). Human and environmental geographers have become increasingly engaged in participatory research with communities working on environmental projects, including stream restoration, film making and school projects (Tipa et al .…”

“…Physical geographical contributions have continued to advance new theoretical and place-based understandings of hydrologic flows and biophysical processes. Applications of physical geographical work are also increasingly linked to projects and structures of decision making, from trialling river classification procedures (Inglis et al 2008) to examining the implications of forestry practices on sediment yields (Marden 2013) to developing climate change adaptation strategies (Fowler et al 2013). Human and environmental geographers have become increasingly engaged in participatory research with communities working on environmental projects, including stream restoration, film making and school projects (Tipa et al 2009;McMillan & Binns 2011;Muir & Rock 2012).…”

Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

“…To supplement adaptation options, the results of other studies were included (Fowler et al, 2013;Kalaugher et al, 2013;Cradock-Henry et al, 2019b). The desktop analysis identified project reports and literature focused on Hawke's Bay and primary industries (e.g., horticulture, viticulture, dairy).…”