Vulnerability scenarios appraisal in a rapid urbanising region using linguistically aggregated method

Abstract

This paper examines the application of a parameterised Ordered Weighted Average (OWA), to evaluate the risk of flood hazard. OWA generates linguistic fuzzy operations that develop a series of multi-criteria combination rules enabling a realistic strategic planning and decision making. Additionally, this research aimed to initiate appropriate planning strategies towards a resilient city. As such, the OWA method is operated in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment to evaluate the spatial risk of floods in Iskandar Malaysia. The combination of current physical and social characteristics as well as future development plans (2025), have been evaluated by the means of different pessimistic and optimistic scenarios through adopting OWA. The results indicate that future developments are likely to increase the vulnerability of region. In particular, the cities and provisioned population growth areas have a higher risk level. Finally, the suggested methodology proved to be a reliable approach for strategic planning of resilient cities. Keywords-Environmental planning, Order Weighted Average (OWA), multi-criteria evaluation, GIS, Iskandar Malaysia I. Introduction Cities worldwide are becoming more and more complex from physical, social, and economic aspects which are highly interdependent. This makes them more vulnerable to disasters, and in particular, natural disasters (Desouza & Flanery, 2013; Dorasamy, Raman, & Kaliannan, 2013; Godschalk, 2003). According to the United Nation's annual report flood is considered as one of the most devastating hazards worldwide. This figure is predicted to reach as high as US$415 billion by 2030 (UNSIDR, 2015). This is more critical in regions with rapidly growing cities with the lack of appropriate planning and proactive initiatives. In 2014, over 6,000 deaths occurred because of natural disasters. More than half of these disasters took place in Asia and the pacific region (UNISDR, 2014). Simultaneously, during the last decades, flood phenomenon and it's socioeconomic consequences increases globally in terms of intensity and frequency. Nearly half of the all victims of natural hazards suffer from flood and it is projected that the flood loses is reached to US$ 60 billion by 2050 (Hartnett