Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth?

Petty, Alek; Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.; Kurtz, N. T.

doi:10.1029/2018gl079223

Cited by 47 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…In regions of sea-ice loss, the DLR will be enhanced by increased ocean-toatmosphere heat and moisture fluxes (Screen & Simmonds, 2010). Although thin ice grows faster than thick ice , this negative feedback is projected to weaken (Petty et al, 2018), implying a strengthening role of atmospheric controls on winter sea ice growth. Although thin ice grows faster than thick ice , this negative feedback is projected to weaken (Petty et al, 2018), implying a strengthening role of atmospheric controls on winter sea ice growth.…”

Section: Physical Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Screen

Deser

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The Arctic Ocean is projected to become seasonally ice‐free before midcentury unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, but exactly when this could occur depends considerably on internal climate variability. Here we show that trajectories to an ice‐free Arctic are modulated by concomitant shifts in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Trajectories starting in the negative IPO phase become ice‐free 7 years sooner than those starting in the positive IPO phase. Trajectories starting in the negative IPO phase subsequently transition toward the positive IPO phase, on average, with an associated strengthening of the Aleutian Low, increased poleward energy transport, and faster sea‐ice loss. The observed IPO began to transition away from its negative phase in the past few years. If this shift continues, our results suggest increased likelihood of accelerated sea‐ice loss over the coming decades, and an increased risk of an ice‐free Arctic within the next 20–30 years.

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Section: Physical Mechanismsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Screen

Deser

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…In the fall, the atmosphere cools rapidly, increasing the air-sea temperature gradient; the resulting increase in upward turbulent heat fluxes cools the ocean surface and warms and moistens the atmosphere. In a warming climate, sea ice loss is characterized by enhanced summer melt [10][11][12] and, correspondingly, enhanced winter lower-tropospheric warming [13][14][15] . The causal link between sea ice loss and surface-amplified wintertime warming has been confirmed in climate model experiments in which the sea ice component of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model is perturbed in isolation from other confounding factors [16][17][18][19][20][21] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea ice and atmospheric circulation shape the high-latitude lapse rate feedback

et al. 2020

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Arctic amplification of anthropogenic climate change is widely attributed to the sea-ice albedo feedback, with its attendant increase in absorbed solar radiation, and to the effect of the vertical structure of atmospheric warming on Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation. The latter lapse rate feedback is subject, at high latitudes, to a myriad of local and remote influences whose relative contributions remain unquantified. The distinct controls on the high-latitude lapse rate feedback are here partitioned into “upper” and “lower” contributions originating above and below a characteristic climatological isentropic surface that separates the high-latitude lower troposphere from the rest of the atmosphere. This decomposition clarifies how the positive high-latitude lapse rate feedback over polar oceans arises primarily as an atmospheric response to local sea ice loss and is reduced in subpolar latitudes by an increase in poleward atmospheric energy transport. The separation of the locally driven component of the high-latitude lapse rate feedback further reveals how it and the sea-ice albedo feedback together dominate Arctic amplification as a coupled mechanism operating across the seasonal cycle.

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“…We did not address the response of Arctic ice volume to near-surface ocean warming, although this has received significant attention in the literature in recent years, amid growing evidence of enhanced upper ocean radiative heating 10.1029/2020GL090236 of the Arctic Ocean (Moore et al, 2016;Timmermans et al, 2018). For example, Petty et al (2018) have reported sea ice growth as a lagged response to ocean and atmosphere warming in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. In our experiments, SST warming is observed in some regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric Warming Drives Growth in Arctic Sea Ice: A Key Role for Snow

Bigdeli

Nguyen

Pillar

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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A number of feedbacks regulate the response of Arctic sea ice to local atmospheric warming. Using a realistic coupled ocean-sea ice model and its adjoint, we isolate a mechanism by which significant ice growth at the end of the melt season may occur as a lagged response to Arctic atmospheric warming. A series of perturbation simulations informed by adjoint model-derived sensitivity patterns reveal the enhanced ice growth to be accompanied by a reduction of snow thickness on the ice pack. Detailed analysis of ocean-ice-snow heat budgets confirms the essential role of the reduced snow thickness for persistence and delayed overshoot of ice growth. The underlying mechanism is a snow-melt-conductivity feedback, wherein atmosphere-driven snow melt leads to a larger conductive ocean heat loss through the overlying ice layer. Our results highlight the need for accurate observations of snow thickness to constrain climate models and to initialize sea ice forecasts. Plain Language Summary In this study we explore the relationship between Arctic sea ice growth and near-surface air temperature in a modeling framework. By mapping the time-and space-evolving sensitivity of the Arctic ice volume to changes in air temperature, we show that warming at the end of the melting season can lead to thicker ice at the end of the following winter. Warmer air temperatures can melt snow and remove the insulation it provides, exposing the ice surface to subfreezing air temperatures. We show that removal of this insulating snow layer is essential for enhancing sea ice growth later on, by allowing more heat to be conducted up and out of the underlying ocean, supporting seawater freezing. Our results highlight the importance of measuring snow thickness for accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice.

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Warm Arctic, Increased Winter Sea Ice Growth?

Cited by 47 publications

References 35 publications

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice‐Free Arctic Ocean

Sea ice and atmospheric circulation shape the high-latitude lapse rate feedback

Atmospheric Warming Drives Growth in Arctic Sea Ice: A Key Role for Snow

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