Attributing observed variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to past changes in surface forcing is challenging but essential for detecting any influence of anthropogenic forcing and reducing uncertainty in future climate predictions. Here, quantitative estimates of separate contributions from wind and buoyancy forcing to AMOC variations at 25°N are obtained. These estimates are achieved by projecting observed atmospheric anomalies onto model-based dynamical patterns of AMOC sensitivity to surface wind, thermal, and freshwater forcing over the preceding 15 years. Local wind forcing is shown to dominate AMOC variability on short time scales, whereas subpolar heat fluxes dominate on decadal time scales. The reconstructed transport time series successfully reproduces most of the interannual variability observed by RAPID–MOCHA. However, the apparent decadal trend in the RAPID–MOCHA time series is not captured, requiring improved model representation of ocean adjustment to subpolar heat fluxes over at least the past two decades and highlighting the importance of sustained monitoring of the high-latitude North Atlantic.

For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.

Several recent studies from both Greenland and Antarctica have reported significant changes in the water isotopic composition of near‐surface snow between precipitation events. These changes have been linked to isotopic exchange with atmospheric water vapor and sublimation‐induced fractionation, but the processes are poorly constrained by observations. Understanding and quantifying these processes are crucial to both the interpretation of ice core climate proxies and the formulation of isotope‐enabled general circulation models. Here, we present continuous measurements of the water isotopic composition in surface snow and atmospheric vapor together with near‐surface atmospheric turbulence and snow‐air latent and sensible heat fluxes, obtained at the East Greenland Ice‐Core Project drilling site in summer 2016. For two 4‐day‐long time periods, significant diurnal variations in atmospheric water isotopologues are observed. A model is developed to explore the impact of this variability on the surface snow isotopic composition. Our model suggests that the snow isotopic composition in the upper subcentimeter of the snow exhibits a diurnal variation with amplitudes in δ 18 O and δD of ~2.5‰ and ~13‰, respectively. As comparison, such changes correspond to 10–20% of the magnitude of seasonal changes in interior Greenland snow pack isotopes and of the change across a glacial‐interglacial transition. Importantly, our observation and model results suggest, that sublimation‐induced fractionation needs to be included in simulations of exchanges between the vapor and the snow surface on diurnal timescales during summer cloud‐free conditions in northeast Greenland.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is pivotal for regional and global climate due to its key role in the uptake and redistribution of heat and carbon. Establishing the causes of historical variability inAMOC strength on different timescales can tell us how the circulation may respond to natural and anthropogenic changes at the ocean surface. However, understanding observed AMOC variability is challenging because the circulation is influenced by multiple factors which co-vary and whose overlapping impacts persist for years. Here we reconstruct and unambiguously attribute intermonthly and interannual AMOC variability at two observational arrays

Oceanic quantities of interest (QoIs), for example, ocean heat content or transports, are often inaccessible to direct observation, due to the high cost of instrument deployment and logistical challenges. Therefore, oceanographers seek proxies for undersampled or unobserved QoIs. Conventionally, proxy potential is assessed via statistical correlations, which measure covariability without establishing causality. This paper introduces an alternative method: quantifying dynamical proxy potential. Using an adjoint model, this method unambiguously identifies the physical origins of covariability. A North Atlantic case study illustrates our method within the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) state estimation framework. We find that wind forcing along the eastern and northern boundaries of the Atlantic drives a basin‐wide response in North Atlantic circulation and temperature. Due to these large‐scale teleconnections, a single subsurface temperature observation in the Irminger Sea informs heat transport across the remote Iceland‐Scotland ridge (ISR), with a dynamical proxy potential of 19%. Dynamical proxy potential allows two equivalent interpretations: Irminger Sea subsurface temperature (i) shares 19% of its adjustment physics with ISR heat transport and (ii) reduces the uncertainty in ISR heat transport by 19% (independent of the measured temperature value), if the Irminger Sea observation is added without noise to the ECCO state estimate. With its two interpretations, dynamical proxy potential is simultaneously rooted in (i) ocean dynamics and (ii) uncertainty quantification and optimal observing system design, the latter being an emerging branch in computational science. The new method may therefore foster dynamics‐based, quantitative ocean observing system design in the coming years.