Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.05.012

Cited by 46 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In addition, projected changes in both precipitation and temperature over the 21st century suggest a general decrease in available water for the summer period, in Belgium (Tabari, Taye, & Willems, ), as elsewhere (Dai, ; Kumar, Lawrence, Dirmeyer, & Sheffield, ), which implies that many forests will become increasingly vulnerable to drought and associated disturbances (Allen et al., ; Choat et al., ; Neumann, Mues, Moreno, Hasenauer, & Seidl, ). For Belgium, for instance, the cumulative water shortage during the summer season is projected to go up to about 200 mm in the late 21st century, suggesting an increased risk of summer drought (Tabari et al., ). Drought induces short‐term physiological disorders by decreasing carbon and nutrient assimilation and can cause hydraulic failure (xylem embolism) in more extreme cases or carbon starvation (exhaustion of stored soluble carbohydrates in sapwood) after long exposure (Bréda et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is growing evidence that drought impacts have increased considerably in recent decades (Schwalm et al, 2017). In addition, projected changes in both precipitation and temperature over the 21st century suggest a general decrease in available water for the summer period, in Belgium (Tabari, Taye, & Willems, 2015), as elsewhere (Dai, 2012;Kumar, Lawrence, Dirmeyer, & Sheffield, 2014), which implies that many forests will become increasingly vulnerable to drought and associated disturbances (Allen et al, 2010; Choat et al, 2012;Neumann, Mues, Moreno, Hasenauer, & Seidl, 2017). For Belgium, for instance, the cumulative water shortage during the summer season is projected to go up to about 200 mm in the late 21st century, suggesting an increased risk of summer drought (Tabari et al, 2015).…”

Section: Drought Stress As a Trigger For Increased Levels Of Defolimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought‐induced tipping point

Sousa-Silva

Verheyen

Ponette

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Understanding the processes that underlie drought-related tree vitality loss is essential for anticipating future forest dynamics, and for developing management plans aiming at increasing the resilience of forests to climate change. Forest vitality has been continuously monitored in Europe since the acid rain alert in the 1980s, and the intensive monitoring plots of ICP Forests offer the opportunity to investigate the effects of air pollution and climate change on forest condition. By making use of over 100 long-term monitoring plots, where crown defoliation has been assessed extensively since 1990, we discovered a progressive shift from a negative to a positive effect of species richness on forest health. The observed tipping point in the balance of net interactions, from competition to facilitation, has never been reported from real ecosystems outside experimental conditions; and the strong temporal consistency of our observations with increasing drought stress emphasizes its climate change relevance. Furthermore, we show that higher species diversity has reduced the severity of defoliation in the long term. Our results confirm the greater resilience of diverse forests to future climate change-induced stress. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence on the large potential of tree species mixtures to face manifold disturbances in a changing world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Drought Stress As a Trigger For Increased Levels Of Defolimentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought‐induced tipping point

Sousa-Silva

Verheyen

Ponette

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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“…Intensified precipitation events have amplified the risk of flooding and landslide activity at regional scale (Pachauri et al 2014, Gariano and Guzzetti 2016, Blöschl et al 2017. Further intensification of extreme precipitation events is projected for the future (Wuebbles et al 2014, Tabari et al 2015, Prein et al 2017, Ragno et al 2018, Ge et al 2019. It makes already adverse repercussions of such events even worse, putting more people at the risk of mortality and economic loss.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation

Tabari

Hosseinzadehtalaei

AghaKouchak

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Projected precipitation from climate models is used in a wide range of fields for climate change impact assessment. However, the spatial pattern of uncertainty across latitudes and the global uncertainty hotspots are not well understood despite their importance for regional adaptation planning. In this study, we describe uncertainties in projected extreme precipitation changes per K global warming across latitudes, and decompose the overall uncertainty into climate model and internal variability uncertainties. We then identify global uncertainty hotspots and discuss the broader implications. Our results show that both uncertainty sources are highly heterogeneous across latitudes, while climate model uncertainty exceeds internal variability uncertainty for all seasons and precipitation intensities. The largest difference between model and internal variability uncertainties is found in tropical regions where model uncertainty is thrice as large as internal variability uncertainty in June-July-August season and twice as large as that in the other seasons. Tropical and subtropical regions are identified as the global uncertainty hotspots, with the Sahara desert and the southern part of the Middle East being the local hotspots. The large uncertainty in the tropics and subtropics is primarily due to the convective nature of rainstorms which cannot be adequately represented by coarse-scale climate models, and also to sparse observation networks based on which climate models can be tuned and improved. The results highlight areas where future model development and improvement efforts should focus to reduce the overall uncertainties in projected precipitation extremes.

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“…Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for assessing the impact of climate change (Randall et al, 2007;Chen et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2014;Alfieri et al, 2015;Panday et al, 2015). Recently, GCMs provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have been widely applied in the climate change analysis (Kharin et al, 2013;Yin et al, 2013;Liu et al, 2014;Rana et al, 2014;Tabari et al, 2015;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al, 2016;Janssen et al, 2016). The CMIP5 provides a set of coordinated climate model simulations for the IPCC 5th Assessment report (AR5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need?

Hosseinzadehtalaei

Tabari

Willems

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation projections are typically obtained from general circulation model (GCM) outputs under different future scenarios, then downscaled for hydrological applications to a watershed or site‐specific scale. However, uncertainties in projections are known to be present and need to be quantified. Although GCMs are commonly considered the major contributor of uncertainty for hydrological impact assessment of climate change, other uncertainty sources must be taken into account for a thorough understanding of the hydrological impact. This study investigates uncertainties related to GCMs, GCM initial conditions and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their sensitivity to the selection of GCM runs in order to quantify the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation and intensity/duration/frequency statistics. The results from a large ensemble of 140 CMIP5 GCM runs including 15 GCMs, 3–10 GCM initial conditions and 4 RCPs are analysed. Albeit the choice of GCM is the major contributor (up to 65% for some cases) to intense precipitation change uncertainty for all return periods (1 year, 10 years) and aggregation levels (1‐, 5‐, 10‐, 15‐ and 30‐day), uncertainties related to the GCM initial conditions and RCPs of up to 38 and 23%, respectively, are found in some cases. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the GCM, RCP and GCM initial condition uncertainties are greatly influenced by the set of climate model runs considered, especially for more extreme precipitation at finer time scales.

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Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

Cited by 46 publications

References 25 publications

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought‐induced tipping point

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought‐induced tipping point

Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation

Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need?

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