Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need?

Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Willems, Patrick

doi:10.1002/joc.5069

Cited by 66 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Ntegeka et al [20] described and used tailored climate change scenarios to limit the number of future scenarios. Hosseinzadehtalaei et al [21] calculated the response of extreme precipitation to future climate change through sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on GCM, initial conditions of the GCM and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). However, the source and contribution of uncertainties in the context of climate change and the inherent impact on hydrology are regionally dependent, and more in-depth research is needed [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Huang

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9-16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 • C/10 a to 0.70 • C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5-40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3-20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Huang

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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“…Although most of the papers in the past focused on historical and present changes (Manton et al, 2001;Łupikasza et al, 2011;Milanovic et al, 2015;Alexander, 2016), an increasing number of studies are currently conducted to highlight future changes and their estimated impacts (Zhang et al, 2011;Kitoh and Endo, 2016;Łupikasza, 2016;Scripc a et al, 2016;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al, 2017a;2017b). Several research papers were developed at a regional scale, such as for Eastern Europe or at the country scale (Busuioc et al, 2010;Costa et al, 2012;Huang et al, 2012;Iizumi et al, 2012;Ivanova and Alexandrov, 2012;Villarini, 2012;Rao et al, 2014;Zhang et al, 2014;Li et al, 2015;Ning et al, 2015;Kim et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future changes in five extreme precipitation indices in the lowlands of Romania

Harpa

Croitoru

Djurdjević

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper presents the results of a study focused on the projected changes in extreme precipitation indices in Romania during three future periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. We investigated changes in future climate based on historical and modelled data sets of daily precipitation. We compared the values calculated for the three future periods with those obtained for the historical reference period 1961–1990. The historical observation data recorded at 30 weather stations and data extracted from six regional climate model outputs (ALADIN53, CCLM4‐8‐17, RACMO22E, RCA4, REMO2009, and WRF331F) under moderate (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios were employed. Five indices established by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were analysed: consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, and annual total wet‐day precipitation. The series of indices were generated using ClimPACT2 software. Based on bias correction methods, the quality of the modelled data considerably increased, and the errors obtained for the daily precipitation varied in the range of ±0.05 to ±1.22 mm/day. The main findings revealed an increase in three of the extreme precipitation indices based on all models considered compared to the historical period. The most important increase (more than 50%) compared to the historical period was detected in the frequency of very heavy precipitation days and the annual total wet‐day precipitation. They were followed by the heavy precipitation days index. The consecutive dry days index indicated mainly no change or a slow decrease, while inconsistencies among the results of regional climate models were detected for the consecutive wet days index. For all indices except the consecutive dry days index, the ALADIN53 and WRF331F models provided the highest projected values for both scenarios. The dispersion of values obtained as model output for each location was higher for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5.

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“…The higher sensitivity of subdaily precipitation extremes to warming climate has more significant implications for urban storm water designs (Fadhel et al, 2017). The stationary atmospheric conditions which were previously considered for storm water design values may lead to an underestimation of risks (Cheng & AghaKouchak, 2014;Hosseinzadehtalaei et al, 2017Hosseinzadehtalaei et al, , 2018. Despite the implications of climate warming on subdaily precipitation extremes, it remains unclear how the urban storm water designs will be affected if GMT increases to 1.5 and 2.0°C from the preindustrial level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Worlds

Ali

Mishra

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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An increase in short duration precipitation extremes poses challenges for storm water design in rapidly urbanizing India. The recent Paris Agreement aims to limit the global mean temperature (GMT) below 1.5 °C (and possibly below 2.0 °C) from the preindustrial level. However, the changes in subdaily precipitation extremes in India remain unrecognized under the 1.5‐ and 2.0‐°C temperature targets. Here using observations and projections of the subdaily precipitation, we show that a majority (11 out of 15) of General Circulation Models underestimate 3‐hourly precipitation extremes and overestimate the relationship between 3‐hourly precipitation extremes and GMT (scaling) in India. A rise of 1.5 (2.0 °C) in GMT from the preindustrial level is projected to cause 20% (25%) increase in 3‐hourly precipitation maxima at 100‐year return period under the stationary condition, which can further rise by 10% under the nonstationary condition. Projected warming results in a much faster (almost twice) increase in 3‐hourly precipitation maxima than 24‐hourly 100‐year precipitation maxima. Moreover, 3‐hourly 100‐year precipitation maxima are projected to increase significantly at 78 locations (out of 89) if GMT increases from 1.5 to 2.0 °C from the preindustrial level. Our findings have implications for urban storm water designs in India.

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Uncertainty assessment for climate change impact on intense precipitation: how many model runs do we need?

Cited by 66 publications

References 79 publications

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

Future changes in five extreme precipitation indices in the lowlands of Romania

Increase in Subdaily Precipitation Extremes in India Under 1.5 and 2.0 °C Warming Worlds

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