Water Budget in a Tile Drained Watershed under Future Climate Change Using SWATDRAIN Model

Abstract

Abstract:The SWATDRAIN model was developed by incorporating the subsurface flow model, DRAINMOD, into a watershed scale surface flow model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment tool), to simulate the hydrology and water quality of agricultural watersheds. The model is capable of simulating hydrology under different agricultural management and climate scenarios. As an application of the SWATDRAIN model, the impact of climate change on surface/subsurface flow was evaluated in the Canagagigue Creek watershed in southern Ontario, Canada. Using the assumption that there has been no change in land cover and land management, the model was applied to simulate annual, seasonal, and monthly changes in surface and subsurface flows at the outlet of the watershed under current and future climate conditions. The climate scenario under consideration in this study for 2015-2044 was derived from CGCM2 (Canadian Global Circulation Model 2), with A2 scenario for future climatic simulation. The SWATDRAIN model's ability to predict the impacts of future climate change scenarios in agricultural watersheds due to monthly NSE (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency), PBIAS (Percent Bias), and RSR (Root Mean Square Error) values of 0.74, 3.67, and 0.37, respectively, for the validation phase. The results showed that general climate change effects more spring and winter hydrology than summer hydrology. The results show that the annual flow is expected to increase in future, which will lead to an increase in the sediment loads in the stream.

Simulation and Prediction of the Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Runoff of Typical Watersheds in Changbai Mountains, China

“…Currently, in making predictions and assessments based on the evolution of the hydrological cycle under different future climate change scenarios [4][5][6][7][8], medium and longterm runoff forecasting has become increasingly important [9,10]. Research usually selects future climate scenarios and climate models or uses mathematical model calculations and downscaling methods to process the data and then analyzes the evolution of future climate and hydrology [11][12][13], while carrying out prediction and response research on hydrological elements [14,15].…”

Impacts of Climate Change and Different Crop Rotation Scenarios on Groundwater Nitrate Concentrations in a Sandy Aquifer

“…A previous study conducted in Prince Edward Island (PEI), Canada [27] also produced a decrease in groundwater elevation for future climate change scenarios in agricultural lands. Another modeling study conducted in the same major watershed as the current study (Grand River watershed) resulted in a reduction in annual stream flow during the future (2040-2059) period compared to the reference period [84]. The low annual Pnet values were the main reasons for lower streamflow and lower groundwater elevation.…”

Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application

“…Hydrological models are widely used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and the management of water resources systems [6]. These models integrate various hydrological and ecological processes that allow for the simulation of water yield under different environmental and climatic conditions [7], providing valuable insights into the potential effects of climate change scenarios [8]. However, many of these models require amounts of data often not available in developing countries, which are likely to be the most affected by climate change.…”