A method
of prediction of location of water cresting and characterizing
its intensity in a horizontal well in a water-drive reservoir is introduced
for the first time. A mechanistic model for water cresting derived
from Darcy’s equation incorporating the main parameters reported
in the literature affecting water cresting—viscosity, well
distance to the aquifer, wellbore pressure gradient, and reservoir
heterogeneity—is introduced with two new characterizing parameters.
First is a model-derived parameter, called the breakthrough coefficient,
which is defined as the ratio of the average time of breakthrough
to the time of breakthrough for a segment of the well, with the model-predicted
location of water cresting corresponding to the well segment with
the largest breakthrough coefficient. The second is the Cresting index,
which is the ratio of the maximum breakthrough coefficient to the
minimum breakthrough coefficient as a characterizing parameter, with
a well with a higher cresting index corresponding to a faster breakthrough
in a group of similar wells. This methodology was validated through
a series of sophisticated experimental corefloods and found to predict
78% of the location of the water cresting accurately. The cresting
index is found to be weakly correlated with the speed of breakthrough
among similar wells.