Water Deficit Estimation Under Climate Change and Irrigation Conditions in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

Milanova, E.; Никанорова, А.Д.; Kirilenko, Andrei; Dronin, Nicolai

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-56469-2_5

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This estimation is in line with the results of other studies on water use in Uzbekistan [13,32]. For the Ferghana Valley of Central Asia, Milanova et al [33] estimated the water deficit at 12%, increasing up to 38.2% by 2080. For Spain, Berbel et al [30] found that rebound effects occurred where water deficits in the irrigation sector existed prior to the implementation of water-saving technology implementation.…”

supporting

confidence: 86%

Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment

et al. 2022

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There is wide consensus among scholars and practitioners that improved irrigation technologies increase farm productivity and improve resource use efficiency. However, there is also growing empirical evidence that efficiency improvements in irrigation water use may create rebound effects, i.e., they may trigger changes in farmers’ behavior that partly or fully offset the technical water savings expected under ceteris paribus conditions. In extreme cases, total water consumption may even increase. We studied the impacts of introducing water-saving irrigation technologies in Uzbekistan and used structured stakeholder interviews for an expert-based assessment of potential rebound effects. Our findings contribute to the understanding of impacts of technological and institutional responses to environmental and economic pressures in sustaining water resources. The study demonstrates that although the objective of increasing irrigation efficiency may be achieved, the actual water savings under Uzbek conditions are likely to be reduced due to rebound effects. Unless there are effective policy interventions, we expect rebound effects through an increase in water supply for crops that compensates for current shortages of irrigation water availability, an increase in irrigated area, a switch to more water-intensive crops, and overall economic growth. The findings of this paper provide a reference point for estimating the water-saving potential and for evaluating and adapting policies.

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supporting

confidence: 86%

Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment

et al. 2022

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“…according to global warming prognoses by the intergovernmental panel on Climate Change, the glaciered river systems in Central asia would experience unfavorable hydrological changes (hagg et al 2006; siegfried et al 2012). projections suggest that by 2050, temperature increases of between 1.7°C and 4.7°C are expected (Milanova et al 2018). increased air temperature in Tajikistan has already significantly impacted water flows in the vakhsh and pyanj rivers (Chevallier et al 2014).…”

Section: Climate Change and Natural Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries

2019

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The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the asian development Bank (adB) or its Board of governors or the governments they represent. adB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by adB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, adB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

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Section: A C K Umentioning

confidence: 99%

Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries: Review of Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities/ International Food Policy Research Institute.

2019

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The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the asian development Bank (adB) or its Board of governors or the governments they represent. adB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by adB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, adB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

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Water Deficit Estimation Under Climate Change and Irrigation Conditions in the Fergana Valley, Central Asia

Cited by 6 publications

References 9 publications

Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment

Rebound Effects in Irrigated Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Stakeholder-Based Assessment

Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries

Agriculture Development in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program Member Countries: Review of Trends, Challenges, and Opportunities/ International Food Policy Research Institute.

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