Water resources availability under different climate change scenarios in South East Iran

Abstract

The comprehensive large-scale assessment of future available water resources is crucial for food security in countries dealing with water shortages like Iran. Kerman province, located in the south east of Iran, is an agricultural hub and has vital importance for food security. This study attempts to project the impact of climate change on available water resources of this province and then, by defining different scenarios, to determine the amount of necessary reduction in cultivation areas to achieve water balance over the province. The GFDL-ESM2M climate change model, RCP scenarios, and the CCT (Climate Change Toolkit) were used to project changes in climatic variables, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological simulation. The future period for which forecasts are made is 2020–2050. Based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, the CCT demonstrates good performance in data downscaling. The results show that under all climate change scenarios, most parts of the province are likely to experience an increase in precipitation yet to achieve water balance a 10% decrease in the cultivation area is necessary under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of the SWAT model show that green water storage in central and western parts of the province is higher than that in other parts.

Climate change impact on the estimation of reference evapotranspiration, water requirement, and irrigation requirement in irrigated areas (a case study: Bardsir plain)

“…Hence, it is the rising temperature that will bring about the greatest adverse effect of climate change, i.e., the increase in evapotranspiration. Also, the temperature increase will certainly increase the evaporation rate and thus decrease water available for aquifer recharge and green water storage of the region that are not considered in this study (Iranmanesh et al 2021). Another phenomenon, which is ignored in this research, is the elimination of irrigation water return that would be happened by switching from flood irrigation methods to modernized irrigation systems.…”

Impacts of climate change on thermal stratification and water quality of Reservoirs

“…Forecasting the future dynamics of the water circulation system in hydrological systems across various climate variability scenarios presents a substantial and challenging task (Iranmanesh et al, 2021). The investigation of climate change's in uence on runoff requires the utilization of diverse input variables in the developed methodologies and models (Das & Nanduri, 2018).…”