Water Resources Criticality Due to Future Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of River Basins in Utah, USA

Khatri, Krishna; Strong, Courtenay; Kochanski, Adam K.; Burian, Steven J.; Miller, Carlin J.; Hasenyager, Candice

doi:10.1061/(asce)wr.1943-5452.0000959

Cited by 18 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…The projected climate results are consistent with other studies such as the climate projection for the Rocky Mountain headwaters of Colorado River (Christensen et al ; Ray et al ). The results of these downscaled climate projections in the State of Utah and the Jordan River basin are also reported in other studies (Scalzitti et al 2016a, b; Strong et al ; Khatri et al ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The projected climate results are consistent with other studies such as the climate projection for the Rocky Mountain headwaters of Colorado River (Christensen et al 2004;Ray et al 2008). The results of these downscaled climate projections in the State of Utah and the Jordan River basin are also reported in other studies (Scalzitti et al 2016a, b;Strong et al 2017;Khatri et al 2018). Figure 6 presents simulated mean daily streamflow and sediment load at the mouth of Big Cottonwood Creek for 2000s, 2040s, and 2090s using data from the dynamically downscaled WRF model for RCP6.0 climate scenario.…”

Section: Changes In Land-use and Land-cover Typesupporting

confidence: 77%

“…This study adopts the multiple scenario approach to analyze the impact of future climate and LULC changes on streamflow and sediment yield, which is a commonly used method for analyzing long-term uncertainties that are not readily quantifiable (Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes 2014;Moss et al 2010;Khatri 2013;Khatri et al 2018). More discussion on the scenarios approach and application in futurist studies are available in earlier studies (e.g., Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes 2014;Hejazi et al, 2014;Simonovic 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

Khatri

Strong

Stackelberg

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 84%

Section: Changes In Land-use and Land-cover Typesupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

Khatri

Strong

Stackelberg

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…water system management, climate resilience, water demand projections corresponding water demands (Brooks et al, 2021;Khatri et al, 2018;Scalzitti et al, 2016;Zhao et al, 2018). While accustomed to operating within the bounds of historical year-to-year snow accumulation, streamflow yield, and the MWS demands, nonstationarity surrounding climate, supply, and demand (e.g., prolonged irrigation season, increased evapotranspiration demands) due to evolving climate conditions challenges system management (Khatri & Strong, 2020;Milly et al, 2008;Zhao et al, 2018). For clarity in the discussion, stationarity, and nonstationarity, refer to the stasis (i.e., stationarity) or trending drift (i.e., nonstationarity) of that central tendency across many cycles of variation (Koutsoyiannis, 2006;Westra et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates

Johnson,

Burian,

Halgren

et al. 2023

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Seasonality and a changing climate exert strong influences on supply and demand in the western United States, challenging municipal water system (MWS) management. Although supply and demand exhibit characteristics of nonstationarity, the commonly used econometric‐based models to estimate demands discount the influences of climate variability and trends in seasonal MWS vulnerability assessments. Given the projected impacts of climate change on water resources, we use the documented performance of a real‐world MWS with a calibrated systems model to investigate how demands modeled with and without the influences of climate impact system vulnerability indicators—determined by the exceedance of historical daily mean imported water—for MWS planning guidance. Neglecting climatic influences on MWS demands, the model overestimates the volume of imported water by up to 50% and misclassifies vulnerabilities during supply‐limiting conditions. The climate‐sensitive demand estimates reduced model error (i.e., <3% error) and correctly categorized vulnerabilities. Moreover, the MWS exhibited an average threefold greater sensitivity to percent changes in demand relative to percent changes in supply. The sensitivity to variances in demand emphasizes the need to account for factors influencing supply and demand when investigating the impacts of a changing climate, suggesting future research to examine the coupled influences of modeled supply and demand accuracy on MWS performance.

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“…Water provides the foundation for regional development, since water resources are crucial for socioeconomic growth, food production and energy generation (Duncan et al, 2019;Wang, 2019). In fact, regional water use is more complex and dynamic under climate change and rapid socioeconomic development, and the complexity is even exacerbated by uncertainty in hydrological systems (Xu & Singh, 2004;He et al, 2015;Her et al, 2019), population and economic growths, industrial structure, policy change and unknown interaction effects (Khatri et al, 2018;Wang & Davies, 2018;Sun et al, 2019). The different levels of regional socioeconomic development as well as the uneven distribution of water resources has resulted in the inequality of water use that can reflect the degree of regional sustainable development some way (Tan & Liu, 2017;Cole et al, 2018;Guo et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional difference of water use in a significantly unbalanced developing region

Lin

Chen

2020

Water Policy

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With a service for the most developed economy and dense population in China, the water use of Guangdong province shows distinct regional difference and is subject to multiple driving forces. The regional differences of total water use (TWU) and water use efficiency (WUE) for Guangdong province and its four sub-regions (i.e. Pearl River Dealt region (PRD), Eastern Wing (YD), Western Wing (YX), and Northern Mountain Region (YB)) were quantified by Theil index, and the influence of various variables on WUE was evaluated through multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Overall, Theil index of TWU showed a decreasing trend whereas Theil index of WUE increased in recent decades, suggesting that Guangdong province has experienced an enlarging regional difference of WUE along with a gradually weakened regional difference of TWU. The PRD has the most significant regional differences of WUE and TWU and accounts for a predominated proportion in the total regional difference. Theil indexes of GDP of industry, per capita GDP and per capita value-added by agriculture had positive regression coefficients and were found to have the most significant impact on the regional difference of WUE. This study has the potential to promote a balanced and coordinated regional development in terms of even regional WUE and TWU.

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Water Resources Criticality Due to Future Climate Change and Population Growth: Case of River Basins in Utah, USA

Cited by 18 publications

References 57 publications

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

Preparing municipal water system planning for a changing climate: Integrating climate‐sensitive demand estimates

Regional difference of water use in a significantly unbalanced developing region

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